Whether you follow The Actuary horse racing tips for the free speed handicap ratings or through the offered subscription services you will have noted the lack of consistency during the summer months.
Those that have been with me through this journey since 2008 have come to expect and accept this treading water period.
Initially the cause and a coherent resolution to the summertime blues eluded me and taking a retrospective view of all the effort made to gain greater consistency was a painful experience yet I do not view the time as wasted. There was always a bi-product of the research and a tightening of processes culminated in better winters!
The Cause
The chart below shows the winning percentage each month of horses that had no previous experience on an All Weather surface and were therefore unrated. Some of these horses had previous turf runs, and although it would make some sense to compile ratings based upon these previous turf runs the figures would lack any creditability.
How to gain an advantage armed with this information doesn’t jump straight off the chart. One thing that is apparent is the similarity of the 2010 pattern being replicated over the 9 months of the 2011 season allowing for the slight month on month improvement for 2011 gained as the database gains depth.
The Cure
A dream scenario for every bettor is having larger stakes on winners and smaller stakes on losers.
Capitalising on where and when we are likely to be most successful is the key to maximising profits. It therefore makes sense to stake according to this data.
Capitalising on where and when we are likely to be most successful is the key to maximising profits. It therefore makes sense to stake according to this data.
As August is the peak with nearly 40% of winning horses having NOT raced previously on a synthetic surface it would be a wise move for those of you uncomfortable with those periods of treading water to adjust stakes proportionately outside of our most successful months.
As we approach a new season and the most lucrative 6 months of the year I thought it would be good exercise to review the subscription services achievement over the past 12 months.
Although the past 6 months have the usual unhealthy look we have in fact added £1,929 to the £35,867 made during the 2010 – 2011 (October 2010-March 2011) season making a total of £37.796 at SP combining the profitability of 'The Marias', 'Speed and Class', 'The Actuary' and 'On The Money'
We could also take the view that the season is no longer 6 months, October – March but the 8 months October – May!
It has seemed a long and sometimes painful wait with several trials and tribulations along the way but the waiting is nearly over. I am hopeful if we can avoid the snowy conditions that prevailed during December 2010 with the loss of so many All Weather fixtures, we are in for a bumper year.
THE WAITING IS NEARLY OVER!
.jpg)