Spotting some very good things at very good prices!

This morning I thought I would share with you a little insight in to using The Actuary speed figures and highlight for you a couple of very good betting opportunities that manifested there selves over the last two days.

Neither opportunity appeared or figured as selections emailed to subscribers as they did meet the criteria of those methodical processes’.

Our first race was on Thursday 6^th December at Lingfield Park. Here are the speed figures published the evening prior to the meeting.

The key sign in this race with Swiss Cross is not only is it top rated and starred for its last time out performance, its ‘Course and Distance’ rating shows even greater superiority over its rivals. More surprisingly is after backing it earlier in the day at 9-2, Swiss Cross drifted out to an SP of 11-2.

The second race took look at was on Friday 7^th December, again at Lingfield Park.

Although the subsequent winner was way down the pecking order it is noticeable that in a 3yo+ Handicap, none of the top four have course and distance ratings until we arrive at Honour and Casual Mover. Once again Casual Movers ‘course and distance’ rating is far superior to its rivals, it is also superior to the top rating on last time out form. Although the result in this instance was a hard fought success it does give an insight in to connections intention.

The frequency of these scenarios are not everyday occurrences, nor are they a licence to print money but they are well worth watching out for and will keep you financially well ahead if you can exercise a little patience.

      

On the third day of Lingfield.....

........The Actuary Horse Racing Tips delivered a small profit.

Not the day I envisaged but a little profit is better than a little loss. Our selection in the first, Desert Sunrise looked promising until running flat after turning for home.

Next up, Tornado Force in the 1:20 took up the running as they turned for home but was unable to repel the challenges of Super Say and Noguchi.

Not an ideal scenario but our final selections for the day were adversaries in the 2:30. 2 points: Flavius Victor (9-4) and 1 point: Mongoose (6-4). Flavius Victor winning would provide a 1.5 point profit for the day, Mongoose being victorious would leave me 2.5 points light and neither selection winning was not even a consideration.

George Baker and Flavius Victor drive for home chased by Mongoose

Fortunately Flavius Victor lived up to its name to land a small profit for the day chased home by Mongoose. I know that several subscribers like to play the forecast when we have two selections so hopefully we also have some happy bunnies on that score.

We have our fourth day at Lingfield Park tomorrow with a nice early start of 11:35 and The Actuary 4 x 1 point selections will be winging their way to your inboxes shortly.

On the second day at Lingfield The Actuary Horse Racing Tips gave to me!

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips gave to me a 10-1 winner!

What we lost in quantity we made up for in quality with our single solitary selection (easy for me to say) winning with some ease. The bonus being that as the selection ran in Lingfield Park’s first race, we can take the rest of the day off J

Graham Lee makes easy work in Lingfield’s first onThe Actuary selection Roland

I am sure that some of you smelt a Rat when Roland opened at 10-1 (couldn’t resist that one).Those that had a lie in may have even got 11-1 with Bet365. I fall in to the former camp.

Graham Lee overcame the wide draw with comparative ease but was left travelling prominent and three wide around the first bend. Roland’s more fancied rivals were seen to be rowing away as they turned the final bend which may have suggested too fast a pace but Graham Lee pressed the pedal to the metal and Roland kept on finding, going on to score by a comfortable 1.1/2 lengths.

We have a little more to get our teeth in to tomorrow on the third day of Lingfield with three races of interest including a 2 point selection mid card.

      

Bull Hay saves the day

It is funny how you build up an intuitive instinct for predicting bad days yet the instinct is not strong enough to prevent you from rushing head long in to the usual routine!

That said, I rather feel that today we fell victim of bad pilots rather than poor selection choice. Srinigar Girl and and Red Mystique where the best examples.

I have a vivid picture in my head of Philip Hide telling Chelsey Banks her mount was a simple point and shoot. Indeed Red Mystique was but the problem was Chelsey fumbled when trying to find the trigger.

Luke Morris galvanises Bull Hay all the way to the line

When it comes to delivering winners Luke Morris proves once again that he is a safe pair of hands in the tightest of finishes and although it was an exercise in damage limitation he managed to keep Bull Hay (13-8) in front by a head to leave us 3.63 adrift at the close of play.

Slim pickings tomorrow from the Lingfield Park card and we have only the 1 x 1 point selection.

      

A perfect 100% for The Actuary Horse Racing Tips subscribers

Three became two when the first of three Actuary Horse Racing Tips selections Fame Again elected to sit down in the stalls prior to the off.  There can be no worse an anti –climax, getting 7-2 on a horse backed down to 9-4 only for it to be withdrawn.

We did not have to wait too long after the non-event of the first for a little bit of excitement plus a guarantee that we were in for another winning day.

Sofi's Spirit (advised at 5-1) gets The Actuary Horse Racing tips subscribers off the mark 

Our selection Sofi’s Spirit (advised at 5-1) travelled well under Liam Keniry and although the winning distance of a neck sounds less than comfortable I never felt at any stage that the result was in any doubt.

Spark of Genius (advised at 6-4) routs the field to give subscribers a perfect 100%

And to add a few more pennies to those under strain Christmas purses, our final selection Spark Of Genius (advised at 6-4) was the easiest of winners making every furlong pole a winning one to leave us with an unblemished 100% and another 7.5 points in the bank.

Tomorrow we head to Lingfield and Kempton with 6 x 1 point selections which seems a pity after Wolverhampton has been so kind to us! 

      

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips offers 10 points to profit to start the week

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips subscribers should feel reasonably pleased with a 10 point profit for the day based on the limited opportunities available. My concerns on what Fergus Cameron may do to the Wolverhampton surface appeared to be unfounded based upon the times returned and I have no doubt that the state of the course played to our strengths.

Nevertheless, I was somewhat frustrated by our first selection and only loss and disappointment on the day Rakticates attitude. After looking like coming with a winning challenge splitting rivals, he appeared to be reluctant to go through the gap and by the time Atzeni had pushed him on Lucy Bee had ground its way to the front.

As I said, this was the only disappointment of the day. Our next, and 2 point selection Corton Lad advised at 7-2 overnight ran out an easy winner of the 4:00 to provide 7 points to the bank and guaranteed a 5 points profit on the day with one more runner to come.

Tom Eaves sets the field a stamina test on Corton Lad

Drawn 6, Tom Eaves curiously ended up four horses wide around the first bend before putting the pace to the race at halfway. Tom Eaves intention was to ensure the remainder of the field would have to match Corton Lads stamina which worked like a dream with only the all out Sewn Up able to get within striking distance.

Baltis Sister and Robert Winston make easy work to land four timer

Subscriber’s final selection of the day was Baltis Sister (advised at 3-1) in Wolverhamptons lucky last. Although Robert Winston had found himself shuffled to the back of the field after a reasonable start, coming in to the straight there was little doubt of the outcome. With little more than a shake of the reins Baltis Sister had cleared away from the field to score by just short of 3 lengths and provide subscribers a 10 point profit for the day.

Tuesday Wolverhampton card looks a little more testing and we have 3 x 1 point selections for the day. Although the prices are a little skinny we only need any one of the three to go in for another day of profit.

      

Horse Racing Tips - Increase your profit NOT your strike rate!

After completing the returns for November it became apparent that it would be hard to be disappointed with our performance in 2012 regardless of what December throws at us. Even with the disappointment of October still fresh in the memory, December would have to disappointing in epic proportions for subscribers not to be raising glasses and rubbing hands together in anticipation of 2013.

Perhaps you would need to understand more than I am prepared to divulge when sharing the following data, but as further endorsement to my preaching NOT to chase a strike rate in favour of profit, perhaps the penny will drop for those that question this philosophy.

2010 can be seen as largely irrelevant due to being the starting point in capturing data in this way and is not complete as a year, but there is no doubt that the dramatic increase in profit when comparing 2011 to 2012 coupled with the decrease in strike rate is no coincidence. Neither is it by design!

Each of The Actuary methodical process is dynamic in its selection process and is designed to find value. I will leave to your imagination as to where the greater value can be found.

As poor timed as Octobers loss was given my wish to promote the service at the start of the All Weather season, I can only feel that our profit and loss will always be dependent on the opportunities that present themselves on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. October was simply a period where those opportunities didn't fall our way.

I can understand why so many subscribers become uncomfortable with extended losing periods such as that suffered in October and it is well worth looking at the graph above to see how quickly those losses are retrieved. This is where the correct staking and holding a betting bank is key, and to put this in to some perspective for you I recall 6 years ago I was betting at £1 per point!