| 31st December 2013 Lingfield Park | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:00 Ladbrokes
Apprentice Selling Stakes Cl6 1m |
|||||||||
| 100.7% | Prime Exhibit | ||||||||
| 99.9% | * | Copperwood | 100.8% | (9) | |||||
| 99.8% | Honey Of A Kitten | 100.3% | (4) | ❶ | |||||
| 99.7% | Ocean Applause | 98.9% | (2) | ||||||
| 99.5% | Abigails Angel | 99.5% | (6) | ❶ | |||||
| 98.1% | Mahadee | 100.5% | (3) | ❶ | |||||
| 98.1% | Hillbilly Boy | 97.9% | (2) | ❶ | |||||
| 94.8% | Fairy Mist | 99.8% | (3) | ❶ | |||||
Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 31st December 2013
This might be the end but lets end it in style.
I cant help but feel that perhaps I made hard work of yesterday and taking a retrospective view of results feel that winners were perhaps easier to find than I made it in looking for value. Lets hope we can end the year in the manner I wish to start the new year.
Both Gabrials Wawa and Mafi have put in good performances
over this trip in in the Lingfield Park 1:30 but have more on their plates in
this this company. BLOODSWEATANDTEARS comes back to the trip it was successful over
of 65 before being disqualified so is in-affect a un-penalised winner running of 66. With the
exception of Swehan who had to be stepped up to 10f to record its first win, the
top 5 in the handicap have not been seen over this trip for over a year on the
AW!
In the 2:00 Fleckerl has more to do than when winning first
time up in a Maiden in a facile fashion over just short of 9f. Wandsworth let
the form of Just One Kiss down badly here yesterday and Mister Musicmaster
looks to be now in the grip of the Handicapper. A most frustrating of animals
QUEEN AGGIE has put up its best two performances as a 3yo over this trip in
better company and surely has a race of this nature in her.
There are a number with good claims in the 2:30 including
Capaill Laith, Kakatosi, SECRET BEAU,
Emkanaat, Glanely, Commanche and Intomist.
All have excelled over this trip at least once in the last year. 3yo SECRET
BEAU ran to freely when last on this surface only to be beaten by 1.3/4
lengths. A stamina building run at Southwell over this trip LTO should see it
improve on the run over this trip and surface which saw it beaten ¾ length by
Tasrih 3 runs ago.
In form sprinters could be the order of the day in the 3:00
and fitting the bill is SASKIA’S DREAM. I am unsure of where the improved
performance of SASKIA’S DREAM came from LTO but a reproduction of that
performance could be good enough to take this. The versatile Rise To Glory is
also worthy of note in this company.
Never A Quarrel found its measure last time out and although
an improving 3yo with only 10 days since its last run were are unlikely to see any
significant improvement and it might find some of these a bit hotte to handle
in the 3:30. DANZOE is going to find this more to its likening than LTO at
Southwell and marginally gets the nod ahead of Novabridge and Sarah Berry who
had the wheels well and truly fall off LTO.
Have a great day and HAPPY NEW YEAR!
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Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 30th December 2013
| 30th December 2013 Lingfield Park | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:00 32Red Nursery Handicap Cl4 6f | |||||||||
| 101.3% | * | Harwoods Volante | ❶ | ||||||
| 100.6% | Corncockle | ❶ | |||||||
| 100.0% | Danfazi | ||||||||
| 99.8% | Royal Brave | ❷ | |||||||
| 99.6% | Thataboy | 99.2% | (1) | ❶ | |||||
| 99.3% | Aspirant | 99.4% | (1) | ||||||
| 99.2% | Kodafine | 98.9% | (2) | ||||||
| 98.0% | Lady Crossmar | ||||||||
| Searchlight | ❶ | ||||||||
Interakt with me at Lingfield Park
With a mix of lightly raced horses still looking for their
niche and horses that have not previously excelled over this trip Lingfield
Parks 12:30 is a difficult puzzle to solve. Bond Club makes its debut on the
surface of the back of a poor run over 6f at Southwell. It was rather odd that Lady Who
made her Handicap debut over 10f LTO when running creditably in maidens over
today’s trip. The 10f run shaved 3lb off its OR. Gentlemax another Handicap
debutant has been running over 10f and 12f in maidens. Jin Crowley has ridden
both debutants but is riding Gunning For Glory one of the least plausible
chances in the race. My tentative selection is tried and trusted over trip and
course, CLUB HOUSE was pulled from a race a couple of days ago and is shorter
than expected in what looks to be potentially a very competitive affair.
On what form is available CONSERVE sets a very good standard
for the 1:00. This will be a first run under Amy Weaver after moving from Lady
Cecil after what was a disappointing run LTO but still ran to a standard which
looks to have the beating of most of these. If able to reproduce its run from
22nd August CONSERVE should stroll home.
Alfred Hutchinson is a horse that I have been on the wrong
side of twice in its last two runs. When a selection in its pen-ultimate run it
was a never nearer 7th after no luck in running and then when
producing its C&D win LTO. It sets the bar in the 1:30 but preference goes
to MAVERICK and Wandsworth. This is a marked step up for the latter but the
clock would suggest that it can still be competitive. MAVERICK the likely pace
in the race drops back down in to a Class 3 and the jockey that rode it to
victory on its pen-ultimate run, Jim Crowley back in the saddle.
The pin could drop on several in the 2:05 including Medam at
the bottom of the Handicap. I have whittled it down to MY LEARNED FRIEND and Metropolitan
Chief with the former getting the nod by the narrowest of margins. While
Metropolitan Chief has proven to be a versatile horse having won over 5f and 7f
this term all wins have come in Class 7. It was 2009 when MY LEARNED FRIEND got
its head in front but its LTO run when beaten 3.5 lengths by Shaunas Spirit in
a class 5 sees it run off a career low today for the very much in form Balding
stable.
Sugar Hiccup has taken well to life on the NH circuit
putting a string of victories together under the Champion and improved its OR from
78 to 111. Prior to its NH sabbatical it was a competitive horse in this
company of an OR of 72. If it has improved by any degree it might make light
work of these but my gut feeling is the NH stint may have dampened its speed..
The step up to 12f worked the oracle for DELLBOUY LTO and the manner of victory
suggested that it was well ahead of its new mark of 67. Thane Of Cawdor put in
its best performance over this trip back in April and I am surprised that Liam
Keniry, the usual poison of choice for the stable opts to ride Yes Chef.
My short list of The Wonga Coup, BROWN PETE, Buaiteoir,
Quadriga, Dolly Colman and Lishane Bog have been whittled down to Dolly Colman,
BROWN PETE and The Wonga Coup when considering their respective performances
over the trip in the 3:15. LTO The Wonga Coup put it in its best performance
for some time over C&D heralding a return to form over the trip that has
seen all three of its victories. The win to run ratio for Dolly Colman is a big
negative. BROWN PETE finished its race well LTO after being given to much to do
and it is no surprise to see William Carson, the jockey who has been successful
on its last three wins back in the saddle for the first time since January.
In the finale we have what I believe might well be the stand
out bet of the day. INTERAKT in amongst a moderate bunch of individuals has
been running mainly over 5f and 6f prior to being stepped up to 10f LTO. You
would expect a horse with sprint credentials to be prominent but INTERAKT was
kept to the rear before making headway beaten by a never nearer 4.5 lengths.
The performance looks pleasing on the clock and although we are unlikely to see
the 50-1 it went off at LTO is good value at 10’s on the exchanges.
Have a good day and enjoy your racing J
Southwell All Weather Speed Figures - Sunday 29th December 2013
| 29th December 2013 Southwell | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:20 32Red Handicap Cl5 2m | |||||||||
| 103.2% | Outrageous Request | ❷ | |||||||
| 101.2% | * | Yasir | |||||||
| 100.7% | Daldini | 100.8% | (1) | ||||||
| 100.3% | Monzino | 99.7% | (1) | ||||||
| 97.9% | Mediterranean Sea | ||||||||
| 96.4% | Scribe | 100.9% | (3) | ❸ | |||||
| Mr Burbidge | |||||||||
Southwell upside down after yesterdays winning treble ;)
As it may appear that perhaps I am not carrying out the due diligence
on the later races after once again yesterday starting the day well with a
treble of winners before the remainder of selections fell in to a black hole
yesterday, I have taken a look at the Southwell card in reverse J
I am not a great lover of stakes races and the 3:00 is a
real pig of a race. Borough Boy, Chelsea Grey, Misty Eyes and Partner’s Gold
make their debut on the surface and there is nothing in their breeding to raise
any alerts. Pearl Noir and Bond Blade have put up the best performances on the
surface with the formers performance being over C&D. I sure there will be a
few chuckles when I say I am siding with 27 race maiden ISLAND EXPRESS ridden
and train by the infamous Ann Stokell. Not based upon its last C&D run but
its pen-ultimate C&D run where it clocked a reasonable time when 4th
to Bispham Green. I am hopeful that the price will continue to drift prior to
the off giving the opportunity of a nice EW price.
The 2.30 offers very little with STUN GUN having the best ‘Sire’
stats from the débutantes and Ishisoba with the best form on the surface, on the
clock, but that was recorded over 6f.
On the Cusp and Aureate have put up good performances this
term on the surface but not over this trip and Sir Dylan and Botanist make
their surface débuts in the 1:55. The horse of most interest to me is MISS ELLA
JADE currently trading at 12-1 who put in a reasonable performance over 12f
when last seen here and also put in her best performance over C&D back in
August.
I am surprised by the quick reappearance of Sleet in the
1:25 given the poor performance 2 days ago. Anfield sets a pretty low standard of
those with previous here. A standard so low that you have to think that one of
the débutantes will be more capable and my pin has landed on DIAMONDSINTHESKY
who has marginally the more favourable breeding stats.
My personal opinion is that this is not a surface for 2yo
and the 12:50 Nursery could go to any one of these. Three Heart’s would be of
more interest had there been a distance switch on its Handicap début and market
support may be the best guide to its chances. Although there is no reason to
doubt Big Kenny’s credential over this new trip but VOLODINA is more appealing
to me from a distance and value perspective at 16-1. It would come as no
surprise if another big price, Cascadia made the frame.
Mr Burbidge makes its Southwell début and although there is
not much on breeding to suggest this to be a favourable transition, it’s running style
tells us the opposite. Scribe is always a gutsy performer on this surface and
should be expect to be in the placing. I have been waiting for MEDITERRANNEAN
SEA to be stepped up on this surface and although the one attempt in a Class 4
at Goodwood ended in failure, on this surface in a Class 5 the selection offers good place value in
this field of 6.
Have great day
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Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 28th December 2013
| 28th December 2013 Lingfield Park | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
11:40 32Red.com / British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes Cl5 7f | |||||||||
| 98.8% | Billowing | ||||||||
| 98.4% | * | Jalingo | 97.4% | (1) | ❶ | ||||
| 97.5% | Treasure Cay | ❶ | |||||||
| 97.4% | Castorienta | ||||||||
| 97.4% | Caroline´s Beach | ❶ | |||||||
| 96.3% | Warbrook | ||||||||
| 94.8% | Notebook | 94.8% | (1) | ❶ | |||||
| 94.8% | Emperor Ferdinand | 94.8% | (1) | ❶ | |||||
| 93.4% | Izbushka | 93.4% | (1) | ||||||
| Anjin | ❶ | ||||||||
| Ganymede | |||||||||
| Royal Encounter | |||||||||
| War Of Art | |||||||||
| Spirit Of Winning | ❶ | ||||||||
 | |||||||||
Dare I predict a favourites day at Leafy Lingfield today!
A wry smile on the face after racing yesterday as I couldn’t
have been more wrong in anticipating result mayhem on yesterday’s cards. Southwell
produced 4 winning favourites with the biggest winning price of 6-1 while
Wolverhampton produced only 1 winning favourite and 12-1 the biggest priced winner. Take out the 12-1 and 9-2 was the next biggest price. Although we found a couple of
winners and some nice priced placing’s, I still feel vindicated in leaving the cards
alone. After being so wrong dare I predict a favourites day at leafy Lingfield today!
A nice early start today at Lingfield Park opening at 11:40
with a tricky maiden with JALINGO and Billowing setting a standard that may
well be surpassed by one of the debutants. Billowing appears to have gone
backwards in its second run after a promising effort first time up. JALINGO
progressed well enough on its second start to suggest that there may be
improvement returning to the trip that saw it 3rd to Sir Robert
Cheval.
There is little to choose over this trip between DRIVE ON
and Starlight Princess although the market suggests otherwise in the 12:10. DRIVE
ON is chasing a hat-trick of wins and the manner of the last two wins suggest
that there is more to come. I am not sure we have seen any evidence that the
added furlong will suit Lady Frances.
GALICIAN has done run consistently well over this trip and
to a standard that should be enough to take the 1:10. As the market suggests
Loyalty is the most likely to chase the selection home.
It is difficult to choose between ARCH VILLIAN and Clerks
Choice in the 1:40. ARCH VILLIAN has the points on the board whereas this is a little
tougher opposition for Clerks Choice. On that basis the former gets the nod.
You can only assume that there has been issues for the
lightly raced Absolutely So and its form figures suggest it should be
respected. Equally Glastonberry and Panther Patrol should be respected given their
record over the trip and are both big price for a horses that are seldom out of
the frame. KUANYAO’s pen-ultimate performance over this trip was impressive enough
to suggest it is a long way ahead of its OR and it is unlikely that the 6lb
rise is going to clip its wings.
A return to form by Smokethatthunders could see it in the
shakeup in the 2:45 and I feel this is more its trip than the minimum. Agerzam
put in a reasonable performance when well backed LTO but I am happier to take
GREGORI who has won its last two races unchallenged in similar company.
Most have had their moments in the 3:20 finale and Bold
Ring, Prince Of Burma, Khajaaly and Victorian Number have all put in good performances
this term but their level of consistency is questionable. This is not the case
for LARGHETTO who has put in two excellent performances over this trip.
Apprentice ridden in its last two runs recording a 2nd by a head and
a win, I am expecting a little more with stable jockey Shane Kelly in the
saddle.
Good luck to you all ;)
Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 27th December 2013
| 27th December 2013 Wolverhampton | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
3:55 Compare Bookmakers At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl6 5f20y | |||||||||
| 100.9% | * | Ivestar | 99.3% | (4) | ❷ | ||||
| 100.2% | Give Us A Belle | 100.0% | (3) | ❶ | |||||
| 99.7% | Beach Rhythm | 99.8% | (2) | ❶ | |||||
| 99.6% | Iffranesia | 99.6% | (1) | ❷ | |||||
| 99.0% | I´ll Be Good | 99.1% | (2) | ❷ | |||||
| 98.8% | Above The Stars | 99.0% | (9) | ❶ | |||||
| 98.6% | Roy´s Legacy | 98.0% | (4) | ❷ | |||||
| 98.6% | Compton Prince | 98.7% | (1) | ||||||
| 98.4% | Steelcut | 99.7% | (15) | ❶ | |||||
| 98.2% | Spic ´n Span | 98.7% | (13) | ❶ | |||||
| 97.8% | Bussa | ❶ | |||||||
| 97.4% | Prigsnov Dancer | 97.1% | (3) | ❶ | |||||
| 97.3% | Captain Scooby | 99.6% | (4) | ||||||
Southwell All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 27th December 2013
| 27th December 2013 Southwell | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:25 32Red Nursery Handicap Cl5 5f | |||||||||
| 99.6% | Razin´ Hell | ❶ | |||||||
| 99.2% | * | Little Big Man | ❷ | ||||||
| 96.7% | Biscuiteer | 98.2% | (2) | ❶ | |||||
| Pushkin Museum | |||||||||
| Oriental Relation | |||||||||
A day of shocks, surprises and big price winners beckons us on the All Weather today.
After digging through today's two All Weather cards I was left feeling that today has all the components to be a day of shocks, surprises and big priced winners. The upside is it takes fewer big priced winners to make a profit and I will be a happy man if a few of the suggested picks below go in. The reality is that many of these races should be given a wide birth rather than finding ourselves funding the Bookies New Years Eve bash ;)
Chasing a three timer Pushkin Museum and LTO winner Oriental
Relation make their fibresand début in the Southwell opener at 12:25.and neither
Sire has progeny wins over this trip and grade. Razin’ Hell appears to need
further than the minimum trip to be seen to best affect and is likely to be
doing its best work in the closing stages. After a reasonable effort BISCUITEER
put up a poor effort LTO but I feel it deserves a second chance as the only
horse in the race that has been targeted at this trip.
The market will be the best guide on how well the débutante entries
are likely to take to this surface in the 12:55. I feel reasonably safe in
saying that we can ignore Sweet Angelic based upon her previous appearance
here. Touch The Clouds is the only winner in the field but the jockey booking
raises the hackles. The booking of Andrew Mullen is no surprise for the Appleby
runner SLEET but it may also suggests some serious intent.
I doubt that Greenhead High will have the pace to adopt its
favoured front running style over a straight 5f in the 1:25 and preference goes
to SHAWKANTANGO and Upper Lambourn. While the latter appears to have lost its
way a little, the former put in a good effort closing all the way to the line while
being hampered in the run when last seen over C&D.
Considering the collective performances of the non-racecourse
débutantes in the 1:55 it is hard not to think that one of the newcomers THE
TROYSTER or DARING PURSUIT could not offer something above the standard set.
Greyfriarschorista is showing signs of coming back to the boil
and should be expected to be in the mix in the 2:25. Chrissycross is starting
to pay the price for recent consistency and is creeping up the handicap. KUNG
HEI FAT CHOY was only just caught by Tatting LTO in a race that saw Chrissycross
and The Lock Master in behind and there is no reason to think that those
placing will not be confirmed.
Nothing with the exception of Outlaw Torn has excelled over
the trip in Southwells 3:00 which might suggest that they are all there in an
attempt to reduce their already low handicap marks! Problem being something is
going to win. In races like this I am happy to take one of the old boys, namely
XPRES MAITE to possibly land its 13th career win.
11 furlong races during the racing calendar are few and far between
and as expected the 3:35 there is little to offer in the way of C&D form. Moreover,
creditable C&D form with the exception of one horse. Currently trading at
20-1 WEST END LAD put up one of its best performances over C&D and although
this was back in 2011 it is noticeable that in 2013 WEST END LAD has won 3
times at the age of 10 off marks of 68, 65 and 65 and has worked its mark back
down to 63 after it last win in July.
I can’t see past IFFRANESIA in the Wolverhampton opener at
15:55 and if there were a danger, at the other end of the market Spic’n Span shouldn't
be ignored.
METHAALY invariably puts in a commendable performance over
6f at Wolverhampton after it has put up good performances over 5f at the
course. This scenario may well be played out again in the 4:25.
The second Division looks on paper to be stronger than the
4:25 and Littlecote Lady seldom puts in a poor performance over this trip. With
only one win to its name in 27 races and form figures of 33222 it may be fool
hardy to side with MAJOR MUSCARI but the strong challenge in the final 2
furlongs when just held by Foie Gras LTO is enough to swing it for me.
I am not enamoured by any of the performances of those that
have previous with Dancing Sal setting the bar low enough to suggest that possibly
JAEGAR TRAIN has been dropped in by Karl Burke in the 5:25.
Again, another race where we are guessing somewhat with CHARMY
DUKESSE looking to have reasonable claims from the limited form available in
the 5:55.
I find it hard to back against EXCELLENT PUCK given the
favours it has done for me in its two AW wins but emotion aside I can see no reason
why it should be 16-1 given its form on the surface and over the trip. There is
concern over the change and choice of trainer but equally it is no surprise
that the top of the market is so open and several horses are being priced on
what they may achieve rather than their actual achievement.
This Is Me and UNDERWRITTEN look the key protagonist in the
6:55 on the clock for me. The latter has been bounced around in trip and given
the performance when last seen over C&D and the current price of 14-1
offers the better value.
There are several races today on both cards which are no
more than Bookies benefits and pinning my colours to the mast of something in
each race has been difficult but the 7:25 is impossible for me. It would be no
surprise to see Handicap débutante TOP LINE BANKER take the prize under Robert
Tart.
Have fun and enjoy your racing :)
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Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Thursday 26th December 2013
| 26th December 2013 Wolverhampton The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
| |||||||||
| 1:40 Compare Bookmakers At bookmakers.co.uk Conditions Stakes Cl2 5f216y | |||||||||
| 102.6% | * | Forest Edge | 100.9% | (5) | ❷ | ||||
| 101.6% | Ballista | ❷ | |||||||
| 101.4% | Addictive Dream | 101.1% | (1) | ||||||
| 100.6% | Peace Seeker | 101.0% | (4) | ❶ | |||||
| 100.4% | Masamah | ❶ | |||||||
Boxing Day Canadian for Wolverhampton
The one racecourse debutant in Lingfield Parks 2:10 Maiden has
been taken out in favour of an engagement at Southwell tomorrow. The level attained
by the five remaining that have already seen the racecourse appears to be nothing
special. ROYAL BIRTH looks to set the standard to beat from the limited form on
offer with its best run coming over this trip and Adam Kirby in the saddle. Perhaps
we need look no further!
The withdrawn Kantara Castle had beaten Jazzy Lady on its
last outing off a very sedate pace and I would not have been surprised to see
the placing reversed in the 2:40. Southwell form doesn’t translate well onto
different surfaces but the manner of RESOLUTE’s victory was commanding enough
to suggest that it will be very competitive even in this better company.
In the 3:45, on the clock, Ferryview Place and
Taxiformissbyron set the standard but whereas the former has no trip history,
the latter has put up a woeful performance. TUKITINYASOK has more to do here than when
scoring LTO over C&D at 25-1 but there looked to be more to come on that
occasion and its record of having run twice above the standard required for the
company it has been keeping over this trip, should not be ignored.
With the exception of a few the remainder of the field
appear to be a poor fit for this trip in the 4:15. SINGZAK and Odin have
maintaining some level of form but Odin looks out of its depth in this company.
Arashi, in amongst some inconsistent performances during 2013 ran exceptionally
well to win over the trip at Kempton Park in a 0-75 but is still 4lb higher than
when achieving that feat. I have concerns with Fresa over this trip when
compared to SINGZAK who has proven to be competitive over C&D.
The level of consistency from MISS AVONBRIDGE and form
figures of 2112522 are hard to ignore in the 4:45 having only been out of the
first two once in her seven runs. There is some concern that she is starting
rack up to many seconds. There are multiple C&D winners in the race
including the selection but Two No Bids, George Fenton, Barbados Bob and Powerful
Pierre last wins all came in lesser company than found here. The lightly raced Striking
Echo is also worthy of note, returning to the C&D of its only win from 6
runs when beating the 78 rated He's A Striker.
Have a fun Boxing Day J
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Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Sunday 22nd December 2013
| 22nd December 2013 Lingfield Park | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:30 Ladbrokes "Junior" Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (All-Weather) Cl6 1m5f | |||||||||
| Uncle Muf | |||||||||
| Ceevee | |||||||||
| Diaktoros | |||||||||
| Magna Cartor | |||||||||
| Simmi´s Tiger | |||||||||
| Double Dealites | |||||||||
| Molly Beag | |||||||||
A Sunday Yankee for Lingfield Park to pay for those Christmas extras!
The opening flat race on the Lingfield Park card at 1:30 sees six 2yo all having had outings with five having appeared on the All Weather. From what has been achieved to-date on the clock I am far happier siding with SHEILAS FOOTSTEPS @ 4-1 than Fine Vintage at Evens.
We have an odd bunch competing in the 2:00 with none of the runners exactly excelling over this trip on previous attempts. I would rather lay form horses Meglio Ancora and Polydamos than back them.
ARCHELAO is now on a mark 1lb higher than when scoring over C&D back in April. It may also be significant that Amir Quinn, the jockey on that occasion is back in the saddle for the first time since that win.
Norfolk Sky looked like it had a more favourable opportunity earlier in the week before being withdrawn in the line-up. Although Layline and Wildomar make some appeal at big prices I am a big fan of SPIRITOFTOMINTOUL and the way it stayed on when scoring over this trip at Kempton Park LTO would suggest there is more in the locker.
As with the 2:00 we have a race of square pegs in round holes and it is noticeable that there has been significant support for Chiltern Secret who opened plenty short enough for a horse with 000 from 3 Maidens runs. It is a tab in the dark but IMJIN RIVER offers some value and has the highest level of consistency.
Have a good Christmas and good luck today
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We have an odd bunch competing in the 2:00 with none of the runners exactly excelling over this trip on previous attempts. I would rather lay form horses Meglio Ancora and Polydamos than back them.
ARCHELAO is now on a mark 1lb higher than when scoring over C&D back in April. It may also be significant that Amir Quinn, the jockey on that occasion is back in the saddle for the first time since that win.
Norfolk Sky looked like it had a more favourable opportunity earlier in the week before being withdrawn in the line-up. Although Layline and Wildomar make some appeal at big prices I am a big fan of SPIRITOFTOMINTOUL and the way it stayed on when scoring over this trip at Kempton Park LTO would suggest there is more in the locker.
As with the 2:00 we have a race of square pegs in round holes and it is noticeable that there has been significant support for Chiltern Secret who opened plenty short enough for a horse with 000 from 3 Maidens runs. It is a tab in the dark but IMJIN RIVER offers some value and has the highest level of consistency.
Have a good Christmas and good luck today
http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-opening-flat-race-on-lingfield-park.html
Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 21st December 2013
| 21st December 2013 Lingfield Park | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:20 32Red Novice Stakes Cl5 1m | |||||||||
| 100.5% | * | Examiner | 100.4% | (1) | ❶ | ||||
| 100.2% | Capers Royal Star | 100.2% | (1) | ||||||
| 99.9% | Galaxy | 99.8% | (1) | ❶ | |||||
| 99.2% | Flying Author | ❶ | |||||||
| 98.5% | Rose Buck | ||||||||
| 98.2% | First Experience | ||||||||
| Impulsive Moment | |||||||||
5-1, 5-1, 7-4 and a 28-1 that just fell short!
KEPT as suggested on the page yesterday kept on to win the 12:40 at 5-1. FORTINBRASS took the 2:45 at 7-4, TRINITYELITEDOTCOM took Wolverhampton's 4:50 at 5-1 so a reasonable return for the page but AMTIRED would have made the smile a little bigger.
Today:
Lingfield Parks 1:25 may well be decided by who and how many break well from the stalls. C&D winner Where’s Reiley should be in the shake-up but chances may be compromised from draw 10. It was around this time last year that Drawnfromthepast put together a hat-trick of Claimer wins and is now dropped to a mark where it should be well capable of being competitive here in a Handicap. POYLE VINNIE excelled in this company LTO when dropped back over this trip and has a kind draw in 5 it able to break on terms.
It’s hard to ignore GRENDISAR’s record over this trip in the 3:10 and although Nautilus and Super Say run GRENDISAR close on ratings I am expecting the level of consistency shown by the selection to prevail.
Have a fun day and good luck
Dundalk All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 20th December 2013
| 20th December 2013 Dundalk | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
6:45 Horse Racing Returns Friday 3rd January 2014 Nursery Handicap 1m | |||||||||
| 99.3% | Hazledoc | 99.3% | (1) | ||||||
| 99.2% | * | Sparkee Sakhee | 99.2% | (1) | |||||
| 98.9% | Fight U For It | 99.3% | (1) | ||||||
| 97.5% | Ever Yours | ||||||||
| 92.5% | Moonlight Ranger | ||||||||
| Ava Star | |||||||||
| Count Of Carabass | |||||||||
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Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 31st December 2013
| 31st December 2013 Lingfield Park | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:00 Ladbrokes
Apprentice Selling Stakes Cl6 1m |
|||||||||
| 100.7% | Prime Exhibit | ||||||||
| 99.9% | * | Copperwood | 100.8% | (9) | |||||
| 99.8% | Honey Of A Kitten | 100.3% | (4) | ❶ | |||||
| 99.7% | Ocean Applause | 98.9% | (2) | ||||||
| 99.5% | Abigails Angel | 99.5% | (6) | ❶ | |||||
| 98.1% | Mahadee | 100.5% | (3) | ❶ | |||||
| 98.1% | Hillbilly Boy | 97.9% | (2) | ❶ | |||||
| 94.8% | Fairy Mist | 99.8% | (3) | ❶ | |||||
This might be the end but lets end it in style.
I cant help but feel that perhaps I made hard work of yesterday and taking a retrospective view of results feel that winners were perhaps easier to find than I made it in looking for value. Lets hope we can end the year in the manner I wish to start the new year.
Both Gabrials Wawa and Mafi have put in good performances
over this trip in in the Lingfield Park 1:30 but have more on their plates in
this this company. BLOODSWEATANDTEARS comes back to the trip it was successful over
of 65 before being disqualified so is in-affect a un-penalised winner running of 66. With the
exception of Swehan who had to be stepped up to 10f to record its first win, the
top 5 in the handicap have not been seen over this trip for over a year on the
AW!
In the 2:00 Fleckerl has more to do than when winning first
time up in a Maiden in a facile fashion over just short of 9f. Wandsworth let
the form of Just One Kiss down badly here yesterday and Mister Musicmaster
looks to be now in the grip of the Handicapper. A most frustrating of animals
QUEEN AGGIE has put up its best two performances as a 3yo over this trip in
better company and surely has a race of this nature in her.
There are a number with good claims in the 2:30 including
Capaill Laith, Kakatosi, SECRET BEAU,
Emkanaat, Glanely, Commanche and Intomist.
All have excelled over this trip at least once in the last year. 3yo SECRET
BEAU ran to freely when last on this surface only to be beaten by 1.3/4
lengths. A stamina building run at Southwell over this trip LTO should see it
improve on the run over this trip and surface which saw it beaten ¾ length by
Tasrih 3 runs ago.
In form sprinters could be the order of the day in the 3:00
and fitting the bill is SASKIA’S DREAM. I am unsure of where the improved
performance of SASKIA’S DREAM came from LTO but a reproduction of that
performance could be good enough to take this. The versatile Rise To Glory is
also worthy of note in this company.
Never A Quarrel found its measure last time out and although
an improving 3yo with only 10 days since its last run were are unlikely to see any
significant improvement and it might find some of these a bit hotte to handle
in the 3:30. DANZOE is going to find this more to its likening than LTO at
Southwell and marginally gets the nod ahead of Novabridge and Sarah Berry who
had the wheels well and truly fall off LTO.
Have a great day and HAPPY NEW YEAR!
http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2013/12/this-might-be-end-but-lets-end-it-in.html
Monday, December 30, 2013
Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 30th December 2013
| 30th December 2013 Lingfield Park | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:00 32Red Nursery Handicap Cl4 6f | |||||||||
| 101.3% | * | Harwoods Volante | ❶ | ||||||
| 100.6% | Corncockle | ❶ | |||||||
| 100.0% | Danfazi | ||||||||
| 99.8% | Royal Brave | ❷ | |||||||
| 99.6% | Thataboy | 99.2% | (1) | ❶ | |||||
| 99.3% | Aspirant | 99.4% | (1) | ||||||
| 99.2% | Kodafine | 98.9% | (2) | ||||||
| 98.0% | Lady Crossmar | ||||||||
| Searchlight | ❶ | ||||||||
Interakt with me at Lingfield Park
With a mix of lightly raced horses still looking for their
niche and horses that have not previously excelled over this trip Lingfield
Parks 12:30 is a difficult puzzle to solve. Bond Club makes its debut on the
surface of the back of a poor run over 6f at Southwell. It was rather odd that Lady Who
made her Handicap debut over 10f LTO when running creditably in maidens over
today’s trip. The 10f run shaved 3lb off its OR. Gentlemax another Handicap
debutant has been running over 10f and 12f in maidens. Jin Crowley has ridden
both debutants but is riding Gunning For Glory one of the least plausible
chances in the race. My tentative selection is tried and trusted over trip and
course, CLUB HOUSE was pulled from a race a couple of days ago and is shorter
than expected in what looks to be potentially a very competitive affair.
On what form is available CONSERVE sets a very good standard
for the 1:00. This will be a first run under Amy Weaver after moving from Lady
Cecil after what was a disappointing run LTO but still ran to a standard which
looks to have the beating of most of these. If able to reproduce its run from
22nd August CONSERVE should stroll home.
Alfred Hutchinson is a horse that I have been on the wrong
side of twice in its last two runs. When a selection in its pen-ultimate run it
was a never nearer 7th after no luck in running and then when
producing its C&D win LTO. It sets the bar in the 1:30 but preference goes
to MAVERICK and Wandsworth. This is a marked step up for the latter but the
clock would suggest that it can still be competitive. MAVERICK the likely pace
in the race drops back down in to a Class 3 and the jockey that rode it to
victory on its pen-ultimate run, Jim Crowley back in the saddle.
The pin could drop on several in the 2:05 including Medam at
the bottom of the Handicap. I have whittled it down to MY LEARNED FRIEND and Metropolitan
Chief with the former getting the nod by the narrowest of margins. While
Metropolitan Chief has proven to be a versatile horse having won over 5f and 7f
this term all wins have come in Class 7. It was 2009 when MY LEARNED FRIEND got
its head in front but its LTO run when beaten 3.5 lengths by Shaunas Spirit in
a class 5 sees it run off a career low today for the very much in form Balding
stable.
Sugar Hiccup has taken well to life on the NH circuit
putting a string of victories together under the Champion and improved its OR from
78 to 111. Prior to its NH sabbatical it was a competitive horse in this
company of an OR of 72. If it has improved by any degree it might make light
work of these but my gut feeling is the NH stint may have dampened its speed..
The step up to 12f worked the oracle for DELLBOUY LTO and the manner of victory
suggested that it was well ahead of its new mark of 67. Thane Of Cawdor put in
its best performance over this trip back in April and I am surprised that Liam
Keniry, the usual poison of choice for the stable opts to ride Yes Chef.
My short list of The Wonga Coup, BROWN PETE, Buaiteoir,
Quadriga, Dolly Colman and Lishane Bog have been whittled down to Dolly Colman,
BROWN PETE and The Wonga Coup when considering their respective performances
over the trip in the 3:15. LTO The Wonga Coup put it in its best performance
for some time over C&D heralding a return to form over the trip that has
seen all three of its victories. The win to run ratio for Dolly Colman is a big
negative. BROWN PETE finished its race well LTO after being given to much to do
and it is no surprise to see William Carson, the jockey who has been successful
on its last three wins back in the saddle for the first time since January.
In the finale we have what I believe might well be the stand
out bet of the day. INTERAKT in amongst a moderate bunch of individuals has
been running mainly over 5f and 6f prior to being stepped up to 10f LTO. You
would expect a horse with sprint credentials to be prominent but INTERAKT was
kept to the rear before making headway beaten by a never nearer 4.5 lengths.
The performance looks pleasing on the clock and although we are unlikely to see
the 50-1 it went off at LTO is good value at 10’s on the exchanges.
Have a good day and enjoy your racing J
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Southwell All Weather Speed Figures - Sunday 29th December 2013
| 29th December 2013 Southwell | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:20 32Red Handicap Cl5 2m | |||||||||
| 103.2% | Outrageous Request | ❷ | |||||||
| 101.2% | * | Yasir | |||||||
| 100.7% | Daldini | 100.8% | (1) | ||||||
| 100.3% | Monzino | 99.7% | (1) | ||||||
| 97.9% | Mediterranean Sea | ||||||||
| 96.4% | Scribe | 100.9% | (3) | ❸ | |||||
| Mr Burbidge | |||||||||
Southwell upside down after yesterdays winning treble ;)
As it may appear that perhaps I am not carrying out the due diligence
on the later races after once again yesterday starting the day well with a
treble of winners before the remainder of selections fell in to a black hole
yesterday, I have taken a look at the Southwell card in reverse J
I am not a great lover of stakes races and the 3:00 is a
real pig of a race. Borough Boy, Chelsea Grey, Misty Eyes and Partner’s Gold
make their debut on the surface and there is nothing in their breeding to raise
any alerts. Pearl Noir and Bond Blade have put up the best performances on the
surface with the formers performance being over C&D. I sure there will be a
few chuckles when I say I am siding with 27 race maiden ISLAND EXPRESS ridden
and train by the infamous Ann Stokell. Not based upon its last C&D run but
its pen-ultimate C&D run where it clocked a reasonable time when 4th
to Bispham Green. I am hopeful that the price will continue to drift prior to
the off giving the opportunity of a nice EW price.
The 2.30 offers very little with STUN GUN having the best ‘Sire’
stats from the débutantes and Ishisoba with the best form on the surface, on the
clock, but that was recorded over 6f.
On the Cusp and Aureate have put up good performances this
term on the surface but not over this trip and Sir Dylan and Botanist make
their surface débuts in the 1:55. The horse of most interest to me is MISS ELLA
JADE currently trading at 12-1 who put in a reasonable performance over 12f
when last seen here and also put in her best performance over C&D back in
August.
I am surprised by the quick reappearance of Sleet in the
1:25 given the poor performance 2 days ago. Anfield sets a pretty low standard of
those with previous here. A standard so low that you have to think that one of
the débutantes will be more capable and my pin has landed on DIAMONDSINTHESKY
who has marginally the more favourable breeding stats.
My personal opinion is that this is not a surface for 2yo
and the 12:50 Nursery could go to any one of these. Three Heart’s would be of
more interest had there been a distance switch on its Handicap début and market
support may be the best guide to its chances. Although there is no reason to
doubt Big Kenny’s credential over this new trip but VOLODINA is more appealing
to me from a distance and value perspective at 16-1. It would come as no
surprise if another big price, Cascadia made the frame.
Mr Burbidge makes its Southwell début and although there is
not much on breeding to suggest this to be a favourable transition, it’s running style
tells us the opposite. Scribe is always a gutsy performer on this surface and
should be expect to be in the placing. I have been waiting for MEDITERRANNEAN
SEA to be stepped up on this surface and although the one attempt in a Class 4
at Goodwood ended in failure, on this surface in a Class 5 the selection offers good place value in
this field of 6.
Have great day
http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2013/12/southwell-upside-down-after-yesterdays.html
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 28th December 2013
| 28th December 2013 Lingfield Park | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
11:40 32Red.com / British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes Cl5 7f | |||||||||
| 98.8% | Billowing | ||||||||
| 98.4% | * | Jalingo | 97.4% | (1) | ❶ | ||||
| 97.5% | Treasure Cay | ❶ | |||||||
| 97.4% | Castorienta | ||||||||
| 97.4% | Caroline´s Beach | ❶ | |||||||
| 96.3% | Warbrook | ||||||||
| 94.8% | Notebook | 94.8% | (1) | ❶ | |||||
| 94.8% | Emperor Ferdinand | 94.8% | (1) | ❶ | |||||
| 93.4% | Izbushka | 93.4% | (1) | ||||||
| Anjin | ❶ | ||||||||
| Ganymede | |||||||||
| Royal Encounter | |||||||||
| War Of Art | |||||||||
| Spirit Of Winning | ❶ | ||||||||
| |||||||||
Dare I predict a favourites day at Leafy Lingfield today!
A wry smile on the face after racing yesterday as I couldn’t
have been more wrong in anticipating result mayhem on yesterday’s cards. Southwell
produced 4 winning favourites with the biggest winning price of 6-1 while
Wolverhampton produced only 1 winning favourite and 12-1 the biggest priced winner. Take out the 12-1 and 9-2 was the next biggest price. Although we found a couple of
winners and some nice priced placing’s, I still feel vindicated in leaving the cards
alone. After being so wrong dare I predict a favourites day at leafy Lingfield today!
A nice early start today at Lingfield Park opening at 11:40
with a tricky maiden with JALINGO and Billowing setting a standard that may
well be surpassed by one of the debutants. Billowing appears to have gone
backwards in its second run after a promising effort first time up. JALINGO
progressed well enough on its second start to suggest that there may be
improvement returning to the trip that saw it 3rd to Sir Robert
Cheval.
There is little to choose over this trip between DRIVE ON
and Starlight Princess although the market suggests otherwise in the 12:10. DRIVE
ON is chasing a hat-trick of wins and the manner of the last two wins suggest
that there is more to come. I am not sure we have seen any evidence that the
added furlong will suit Lady Frances.
GALICIAN has done run consistently well over this trip and
to a standard that should be enough to take the 1:10. As the market suggests
Loyalty is the most likely to chase the selection home.
It is difficult to choose between ARCH VILLIAN and Clerks
Choice in the 1:40. ARCH VILLIAN has the points on the board whereas this is a little
tougher opposition for Clerks Choice. On that basis the former gets the nod.
You can only assume that there has been issues for the
lightly raced Absolutely So and its form figures suggest it should be
respected. Equally Glastonberry and Panther Patrol should be respected given their
record over the trip and are both big price for a horses that are seldom out of
the frame. KUANYAO’s pen-ultimate performance over this trip was impressive enough
to suggest it is a long way ahead of its OR and it is unlikely that the 6lb
rise is going to clip its wings.
A return to form by Smokethatthunders could see it in the
shakeup in the 2:45 and I feel this is more its trip than the minimum. Agerzam
put in a reasonable performance when well backed LTO but I am happier to take
GREGORI who has won its last two races unchallenged in similar company.
Most have had their moments in the 3:20 finale and Bold
Ring, Prince Of Burma, Khajaaly and Victorian Number have all put in good performances
this term but their level of consistency is questionable. This is not the case
for LARGHETTO who has put in two excellent performances over this trip.
Apprentice ridden in its last two runs recording a 2nd by a head and
a win, I am expecting a little more with stable jockey Shane Kelly in the
saddle.
Good luck to you all ;)
Friday, December 27, 2013
Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 27th December 2013
| 27th December 2013 Wolverhampton | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
3:55 Compare Bookmakers At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl6 5f20y | |||||||||
| 100.9% | * | Ivestar | 99.3% | (4) | ❷ | ||||
| 100.2% | Give Us A Belle | 100.0% | (3) | ❶ | |||||
| 99.7% | Beach Rhythm | 99.8% | (2) | ❶ | |||||
| 99.6% | Iffranesia | 99.6% | (1) | ❷ | |||||
| 99.0% | I´ll Be Good | 99.1% | (2) | ❷ | |||||
| 98.8% | Above The Stars | 99.0% | (9) | ❶ | |||||
| 98.6% | Roy´s Legacy | 98.0% | (4) | ❷ | |||||
| 98.6% | Compton Prince | 98.7% | (1) | ||||||
| 98.4% | Steelcut | 99.7% | (15) | ❶ | |||||
| 98.2% | Spic ´n Span | 98.7% | (13) | ❶ | |||||
| 97.8% | Bussa | ❶ | |||||||
| 97.4% | Prigsnov Dancer | 97.1% | (3) | ❶ | |||||
| 97.3% | Captain Scooby | 99.6% | (4) | ||||||
Southwell All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 27th December 2013
| 27th December 2013 Southwell | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:25 32Red Nursery Handicap Cl5 5f | |||||||||
| 99.6% | Razin´ Hell | ❶ | |||||||
| 99.2% | * | Little Big Man | ❷ | ||||||
| 96.7% | Biscuiteer | 98.2% | (2) | ❶ | |||||
| Pushkin Museum | |||||||||
| Oriental Relation | |||||||||
A day of shocks, surprises and big price winners beckons us on the All Weather today.
After digging through today's two All Weather cards I was left feeling that today has all the components to be a day of shocks, surprises and big priced winners. The upside is it takes fewer big priced winners to make a profit and I will be a happy man if a few of the suggested picks below go in. The reality is that many of these races should be given a wide birth rather than finding ourselves funding the Bookies New Years Eve bash ;)
Chasing a three timer Pushkin Museum and LTO winner Oriental
Relation make their fibresand début in the Southwell opener at 12:25.and neither
Sire has progeny wins over this trip and grade. Razin’ Hell appears to need
further than the minimum trip to be seen to best affect and is likely to be
doing its best work in the closing stages. After a reasonable effort BISCUITEER
put up a poor effort LTO but I feel it deserves a second chance as the only
horse in the race that has been targeted at this trip.
The market will be the best guide on how well the débutante entries
are likely to take to this surface in the 12:55. I feel reasonably safe in
saying that we can ignore Sweet Angelic based upon her previous appearance
here. Touch The Clouds is the only winner in the field but the jockey booking
raises the hackles. The booking of Andrew Mullen is no surprise for the Appleby
runner SLEET but it may also suggests some serious intent.
I doubt that Greenhead High will have the pace to adopt its
favoured front running style over a straight 5f in the 1:25 and preference goes
to SHAWKANTANGO and Upper Lambourn. While the latter appears to have lost its
way a little, the former put in a good effort closing all the way to the line while
being hampered in the run when last seen over C&D.
Considering the collective performances of the non-racecourse
débutantes in the 1:55 it is hard not to think that one of the newcomers THE
TROYSTER or DARING PURSUIT could not offer something above the standard set.
Greyfriarschorista is showing signs of coming back to the boil
and should be expected to be in the mix in the 2:25. Chrissycross is starting
to pay the price for recent consistency and is creeping up the handicap. KUNG
HEI FAT CHOY was only just caught by Tatting LTO in a race that saw Chrissycross
and The Lock Master in behind and there is no reason to think that those
placing will not be confirmed.
Nothing with the exception of Outlaw Torn has excelled over
the trip in Southwells 3:00 which might suggest that they are all there in an
attempt to reduce their already low handicap marks! Problem being something is
going to win. In races like this I am happy to take one of the old boys, namely
XPRES MAITE to possibly land its 13th career win.
11 furlong races during the racing calendar are few and far between
and as expected the 3:35 there is little to offer in the way of C&D form. Moreover,
creditable C&D form with the exception of one horse. Currently trading at
20-1 WEST END LAD put up one of its best performances over C&D and although
this was back in 2011 it is noticeable that in 2013 WEST END LAD has won 3
times at the age of 10 off marks of 68, 65 and 65 and has worked its mark back
down to 63 after it last win in July.
I can’t see past IFFRANESIA in the Wolverhampton opener at
15:55 and if there were a danger, at the other end of the market Spic’n Span shouldn't
be ignored.
METHAALY invariably puts in a commendable performance over
6f at Wolverhampton after it has put up good performances over 5f at the
course. This scenario may well be played out again in the 4:25.
The second Division looks on paper to be stronger than the
4:25 and Littlecote Lady seldom puts in a poor performance over this trip. With
only one win to its name in 27 races and form figures of 33222 it may be fool
hardy to side with MAJOR MUSCARI but the strong challenge in the final 2
furlongs when just held by Foie Gras LTO is enough to swing it for me.
I am not enamoured by any of the performances of those that
have previous with Dancing Sal setting the bar low enough to suggest that possibly
JAEGAR TRAIN has been dropped in by Karl Burke in the 5:25.
Again, another race where we are guessing somewhat with CHARMY
DUKESSE looking to have reasonable claims from the limited form available in
the 5:55.
I find it hard to back against EXCELLENT PUCK given the
favours it has done for me in its two AW wins but emotion aside I can see no reason
why it should be 16-1 given its form on the surface and over the trip. There is
concern over the change and choice of trainer but equally it is no surprise
that the top of the market is so open and several horses are being priced on
what they may achieve rather than their actual achievement.
This Is Me and UNDERWRITTEN look the key protagonist in the
6:55 on the clock for me. The latter has been bounced around in trip and given
the performance when last seen over C&D and the current price of 14-1
offers the better value.
There are several races today on both cards which are no
more than Bookies benefits and pinning my colours to the mast of something in
each race has been difficult but the 7:25 is impossible for me. It would be no
surprise to see Handicap débutante TOP LINE BANKER take the prize under Robert
Tart.
Have fun and enjoy your racing :)
http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2013/12/chasing-three-timer-pushkin-museum-and.html
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Thursday 26th December 2013
| 26th December 2013 Wolverhampton The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
| |||||||||
| 1:40 Compare Bookmakers At bookmakers.co.uk Conditions Stakes Cl2 5f216y | |||||||||
| 102.6% | * | Forest Edge | 100.9% | (5) | ❷ | ||||
| 101.6% | Ballista | ❷ | |||||||
| 101.4% | Addictive Dream | 101.1% | (1) | ||||||
| 100.6% | Peace Seeker | 101.0% | (4) | ❶ | |||||
| 100.4% | Masamah | ❶ | |||||||
Boxing Day Canadian for Wolverhampton
The one racecourse debutant in Lingfield Parks 2:10 Maiden has
been taken out in favour of an engagement at Southwell tomorrow. The level attained
by the five remaining that have already seen the racecourse appears to be nothing
special. ROYAL BIRTH looks to set the standard to beat from the limited form on
offer with its best run coming over this trip and Adam Kirby in the saddle. Perhaps
we need look no further!
The withdrawn Kantara Castle had beaten Jazzy Lady on its
last outing off a very sedate pace and I would not have been surprised to see
the placing reversed in the 2:40. Southwell form doesn’t translate well onto
different surfaces but the manner of RESOLUTE’s victory was commanding enough
to suggest that it will be very competitive even in this better company.
In the 3:45, on the clock, Ferryview Place and
Taxiformissbyron set the standard but whereas the former has no trip history,
the latter has put up a woeful performance. TUKITINYASOK has more to do here than when
scoring LTO over C&D at 25-1 but there looked to be more to come on that
occasion and its record of having run twice above the standard required for the
company it has been keeping over this trip, should not be ignored.
With the exception of a few the remainder of the field
appear to be a poor fit for this trip in the 4:15. SINGZAK and Odin have
maintaining some level of form but Odin looks out of its depth in this company.
Arashi, in amongst some inconsistent performances during 2013 ran exceptionally
well to win over the trip at Kempton Park in a 0-75 but is still 4lb higher than
when achieving that feat. I have concerns with Fresa over this trip when
compared to SINGZAK who has proven to be competitive over C&D.
The level of consistency from MISS AVONBRIDGE and form
figures of 2112522 are hard to ignore in the 4:45 having only been out of the
first two once in her seven runs. There is some concern that she is starting
rack up to many seconds. There are multiple C&D winners in the race
including the selection but Two No Bids, George Fenton, Barbados Bob and Powerful
Pierre last wins all came in lesser company than found here. The lightly raced Striking
Echo is also worthy of note, returning to the C&D of its only win from 6
runs when beating the 78 rated He's A Striker.
Have a fun Boxing Day J
http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2013/12/boxing-day-canadian-for-wolverhampton.html
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Sunday 22nd December 2013
| 22nd December 2013 Lingfield Park | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:30 Ladbrokes "Junior" Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (All-Weather) Cl6 1m5f | |||||||||
| Uncle Muf | |||||||||
| Ceevee | |||||||||
| Diaktoros | |||||||||
| Magna Cartor | |||||||||
| Simmi´s Tiger | |||||||||
| Double Dealites | |||||||||
| Molly Beag | |||||||||
A Sunday Yankee for Lingfield Park to pay for those Christmas extras!
The opening flat race on the Lingfield Park card at 1:30 sees six 2yo all having had outings with five having appeared on the All Weather. From what has been achieved to-date on the clock I am far happier siding with SHEILAS FOOTSTEPS @ 4-1 than Fine Vintage at Evens.
We have an odd bunch competing in the 2:00 with none of the runners exactly excelling over this trip on previous attempts. I would rather lay form horses Meglio Ancora and Polydamos than back them.
ARCHELAO is now on a mark 1lb higher than when scoring over C&D back in April. It may also be significant that Amir Quinn, the jockey on that occasion is back in the saddle for the first time since that win.
Norfolk Sky looked like it had a more favourable opportunity earlier in the week before being withdrawn in the line-up. Although Layline and Wildomar make some appeal at big prices I am a big fan of SPIRITOFTOMINTOUL and the way it stayed on when scoring over this trip at Kempton Park LTO would suggest there is more in the locker.
As with the 2:00 we have a race of square pegs in round holes and it is noticeable that there has been significant support for Chiltern Secret who opened plenty short enough for a horse with 000 from 3 Maidens runs. It is a tab in the dark but IMJIN RIVER offers some value and has the highest level of consistency.
Have a good Christmas and good luck today
We have an odd bunch competing in the 2:00 with none of the runners exactly excelling over this trip on previous attempts. I would rather lay form horses Meglio Ancora and Polydamos than back them.
ARCHELAO is now on a mark 1lb higher than when scoring over C&D back in April. It may also be significant that Amir Quinn, the jockey on that occasion is back in the saddle for the first time since that win.
Norfolk Sky looked like it had a more favourable opportunity earlier in the week before being withdrawn in the line-up. Although Layline and Wildomar make some appeal at big prices I am a big fan of SPIRITOFTOMINTOUL and the way it stayed on when scoring over this trip at Kempton Park LTO would suggest there is more in the locker.
As with the 2:00 we have a race of square pegs in round holes and it is noticeable that there has been significant support for Chiltern Secret who opened plenty short enough for a horse with 000 from 3 Maidens runs. It is a tab in the dark but IMJIN RIVER offers some value and has the highest level of consistency.
Have a good Christmas and good luck today
http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-opening-flat-race-on-lingfield-park.html
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 21st December 2013
| 21st December 2013 Lingfield Park | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:20 32Red Novice Stakes Cl5 1m | |||||||||
| 100.5% | * | Examiner | 100.4% | (1) | ❶ | ||||
| 100.2% | Capers Royal Star | 100.2% | (1) | ||||||
| 99.9% | Galaxy | 99.8% | (1) | ❶ | |||||
| 99.2% | Flying Author | ❶ | |||||||
| 98.5% | Rose Buck | ||||||||
| 98.2% | First Experience | ||||||||
| Impulsive Moment | |||||||||
5-1, 5-1, 7-4 and a 28-1 that just fell short!
KEPT as suggested on the page yesterday kept on to win the 12:40 at 5-1. FORTINBRASS took the 2:45 at 7-4, TRINITYELITEDOTCOM took Wolverhampton's 4:50 at 5-1 so a reasonable return for the page but AMTIRED would have made the smile a little bigger.
Today:
Lingfield Parks 1:25 may well be decided by who and how many break well from the stalls. C&D winner Where’s Reiley should be in the shake-up but chances may be compromised from draw 10. It was around this time last year that Drawnfromthepast put together a hat-trick of Claimer wins and is now dropped to a mark where it should be well capable of being competitive here in a Handicap. POYLE VINNIE excelled in this company LTO when dropped back over this trip and has a kind draw in 5 it able to break on terms.
It’s hard to ignore GRENDISAR’s record over this trip in the 3:10 and although Nautilus and Super Say run GRENDISAR close on ratings I am expecting the level of consistency shown by the selection to prevail.
Have a fun day and good luck
Friday, December 20, 2013
Dundalk All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 20th December 2013
| 20th December 2013 Dundalk | |||||||||
| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
6:45 Horse Racing Returns Friday 3rd January 2014 Nursery Handicap 1m | |||||||||
| 99.3% | Hazledoc | 99.3% | (1) | ||||||
| 99.2% | * | Sparkee Sakhee | 99.2% | (1) | |||||
| 98.9% | Fight U For It | 99.3% | (1) | ||||||
| 97.5% | Ever Yours | ||||||||
| 92.5% | Moonlight Ranger | ||||||||
| Ava Star | |||||||||
| Count Of Carabass | |||||||||
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