A Different Standard Of Racing – Southwell

I had always made the assumption that the role of The Clerk of the Course, at any racecourse, was to maintain the racing surface to as close as possible to the norm. In the case of a turf course this would be 'good', on an all weather course 'standard'.

Yesterday, I was left asking myself, after returning the times from Southwell, why no attempt was made to water the track to bring it closer to standard.

I appreciate that after the winter flooding Roderick Duncan might be sick of the sight of water and after re-opening in early February the times returned suggested business as usual. Whereas the times being returned since the 2nd March 2013 would suggest a gradual deterioration of the racing surface to the degree that if Southwell all weather course was a turf track the meetings would have been abandoned.

I would exercise some caution and be very skeptical of the form lines coming from Southwell over the last month unless the horses that have prevailed were to be facing bottomless ground. Or perhaps we are looking at a new standard of racing at Southwell.

Flat Turf Showpiece event William Hill Lincoln already under threat

With the Flat Turf season only days away already the weather threatens a showpiece event. 

The British Horseracing Authority and the Levy Board have sanctioned a seven-race card because of an unfavourable weather forecast that could threaten racing on turf.

The main meeting on Saturday is at Doncaster featuring the William Hill Lincoln, the first big race of the new turf Flat season.

Races at Southwell will close at noon on Thursday and final declarations must be made by 10.00 am on Friday. The first race is due off at 1.25.

Kempton Park Horse Racing Tips - Wednesday 23rd January 2013

23rd January 2013 Kempton Park

All speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting (subscribe)

4:30 Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Maiden Fillies´ Stakes Cl5 7f
99.4% * Poet´s Prospect
98.9% Special Meaning
98.8% Petra
97.7% Quelle Affaire
97.5% Bubblina 98.4% (1)
96.5% Prom Dress
95.9% Twilight Legend 96.3% (2)
Hawaiian Dream
Movementneverlies

5:00 Back And Lay At betdaq.com Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m3f
99.6% * Queen Of Skies
99.6% * El Massivo
98.4% Fleeting Indian
97.9% Bin Manduro
94.7% Sassi Sioux
85.9% Sings Poet
Federal Blue
Luggers Hall
Magical Kingdom
Rayadour

5:30 Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m
101.6% * Aegean King 100.8% (1)
100.8% Fairy Mist
100.6% Ermyntrude 99.8% (6)
100.3% Vitznau 100.8% (3)
99.8% Shared Moment 98.8% (4)
99.8% Georgebernardshaw 98.5% (2)
99.7% Meydan Style 100.1% (2)
99.6% Rainbow Riches 98.1% (2)
99.4% Divine Rule 98.8% (9)
99.2% Valkov 98.6% (4)
98.4% Flamborough Breeze
97.2% Athletic

6:00 Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap (Div II) Cl6 1m
100.9% * Strategic Action
100.6% Leitrim King
100.5% Litmus 98.0% (1)
100.3% Boris The Bold 99.3% (3)
100.3% Rapid Water 98.9% (4)
99.5% Sleepy Lucy
99.2% Tijuca
99.0% Olney Lass
98.7% Exopuntia 99.4% (3)
96.7% Kiss My Heart
95.8% Just Breathe

6:30 Betdaq Casino Games Handicap Cl6 1m
100.7% * Taxiformissbyron 100.0% (1)
100.4% Shearian 98.1% (2)
99.6% Poetic Verse
98.8% Lincolnrose 99.5% (1)
98.7% Multi Fours
98.6% World Freight Girl
98.1% Mystery Woman 99.8% (1)
97.8% Alfaisaliah
97.8% Precision Strike
97.3% Ely Valley 96.7% (1)
96.8% Icanboogie
96.5% Running Bull

7:00 Time Ordered Cards In Racing Plus Handicap Cl4 6f
100.8% * Equitania 100.5% (1)
100.3% Foxtrot Jubilee 99.9% (1)
99.2% Hazza The Jazza 99.4% (1)

7:30 Kempton For Weddings Handicap Cl6 1m4f
103.3% * Honoured
103.2% Langham Lily
101.7% Sweet Liberta
101.5% Al Amaan
101.4% Simayill
100.9% Port Charlotte
100.2% Shalambar
100.1% Soweto Star
99.3% Nolecce
98.8% Trip Switch 96.0% (3)
97.4% Mcbirney
97.4% Wordiness
96.7% Refreshestheparts
96.3% The Blue Dog

8:00 Book For Racing Plus Chase Day Handicap Cl7 6f
100.5% * Adaeze
100.3% First Rebellion 97.7% (4)
99.6% Artful Lady
99.4% Rightcar 99.1% (8)
99.4% Cut The Cackle 99.6% (6)
99.0% Mr Optimistic
99.0% Ishetoo
98.9% Greek Islands
98.9% Media Jury
96.2% Smoky Cloud 96.2% (2)

The Actuary top rates 6 from 8 at Lingfield Park - with 5-4, 8-13, 6-1, 11-8, 6-1 and 7-2

It was a memorable day at Lingfield Park today for The Actuary Horse Racing Tips and for the art of speed handicapping.

I appreciate that the first two winners on the card were not to difficult to find and both were supported accordingly. I am not sure whether even a clairvoyant could have predicted Calypso Magic or Sir Trader but the figures did the magic on the other six races with 5-4, 8-13, 6-1, 11-8, 6-1 and 7-2 top rated winners. 

Below are the figures posted up for subscribers the evening before racing.   

12th December 2012 Lingfield Park 

12:00 atrvirtualowner.com Claiming Stakes Cl6 7f
100.1% * Secret Symphony 1ST 5-4  TA 
98.5% Opus Cactus 2ND 6-1
98.1% Ilsa Lund
96.2% Sally Bruce
Lady Lunchalot 3RD 6-1
Krupskaya

12:30 Follow Us On Twitter @LingfieldPark Selling Stakes Cl6 7f
100.8% * Majuro 99.6% (3) 1ST 8-13  OTM   S+C 
99.6% Abhaath 97.1% (1) 3RD 7-1
99.3% Memphis Man 96.9% (1)
99.3% Divine Rule 99.3% (3)
98.2% The Dancing Lord
97.3% Irish Heartbeat 2ND 7-2
95.7% Prophet In A Dream 98.8% (1)
95.5% El Dececy

1:00 Marsh Green Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m2f
100.7% * Sail Home 98.8% (4)
99.5% Lady Arabella 99.2% (2)
99.0% Mafi 99.7% (5)
98.9% Mount Abora 98.9% (1)
98.8% Thecornishcowboy 99.5% (2)
98.6% Calypso Magic 1ST 16-1
98.6% Conducting 99.3% (5) 2ND 9-2
97.8% Byrd In Hand 98.6% (4)
96.6% Saint Irene
96.4% With Hindsight 3RD 8-1

1:30 Marsh Green Handicap (Div II) Cl6 1m2f
100.4% * Zenarinda 99.7% (4) 1ST 6-1
100.4% Hawaana 99.7% (4) 3RD 4-1
100.0% Maz 
99.4% Landesherr 99.3% (1)
99.2% Wordiness 99.1% (1)
99.2% Resplendent Alpha 99.1% (5) 2ND 5-1
99.1% Ellie In The Pink 99.9% (1)
98.6% Salient
96.9% Dolly Colman
96.4% Grace And Beauty

2:00 Felbridge Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 1m2f
99.6% * Syncopate 99.6% (1) 1ST 11-8
99.4% Roe Valley 97.9% (2)
99.3% Heezararity 3RD 5-2
98.6% Grand Theft Equine 99.3% (3) 2ND 6-1
97.3% Handsome Molly
96.7% Sugar Lips
95.2% Buckley Boy 97.5% (1)
Johns Porridge
Phantom Prince
Tiny Thompson

2:30 Bryan Arthur Crawford Memorial Handicap Cl4 7f
101.7% Roy The Boy 2ND 6-4
101.2% * Prime Exhibit 
101.1% Jack Who´s He 
100.6% Piceno 99.4% (1)
100.0% Avonrose 97.1% (1)
99.9% Schoolmaster 100.2% (1)
96.3% Stir Trader 1ST 14-1
Waking Warrior 3RD

3:00 Breathe Spa At Lingfield Marriott Handicap Cl5 1m4f
101.6% Stand Guard 100.4% (1) 1ST 6-1
101.6% Miss Blink 
100.4% Sherman McCoy 99.4% (1)
99.4% Winning Spark
99.0% Port Charlotte
99.0% * Flying Trader
98.7% Focail Maith 98.6% (1) 2ND 8-1
98.4% Standpoint 98.3% (1) 3RD 8-1
97.8% Beat Route 99.8% (5)
96.1% Any Given Dream
My Guardian Angel
Ordensritter

3:30 Tandridge All-Weather "Hands And Heels" Apprentice Series Handicap (Racing Excellence Initiative) Cl6 1m
100.6% * Refreshestheparts 1ST 7-2
99.7% The New Black 3RD 16-1
99.5% Breakheart 98.9% (1)
99.3% West Side
99.1% Bloodsweatandtears 100.7% (1)
99.0% Exopuntia 99.0% (1)
98.9% Schoolboy Champ
98.7% Aquilifer 99.3% (9)
98.5% Hierarch 100.1% (3) 2ND 10-1
Captain Kendall

On the eighth day at Lingfield.......

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips racked up the winners and delivered a perfect 3 out of 3 at Lingfield Park before repeating a similar feat at Kempton Park.

Although we delivered 3 out of 3, the prices on offer still left me counting what was required to secure a profit and it was not until Kempton Park that we delivered that guarantee.

Secret Symphony (15-8) got the ball rolling and chalked up just short of two points followed by 2 point selection Majuro (Evens) taking the tally to 4 points. The third and final Lingfield selection Syncopate (7-4) gave us +5.64 points profit heading to Kempton Park where we had 6 points at stake.

At last! Kalokgathia 6 times the bridesmaid wins with ease

Whipper Snapper was first up and first down for the day before our other 2 point selection KALOKAGATHIA (EVENS). I could hear the moans of derision coming down the internet when I put the selection up last night.

With 6 x 2^nd placing in a row and the weight of our money being carried on most of those occasions, 2 points at Even money was scant reward should we be victorious.

Kalokagathia delivered and in style and I couldn't think of a more fitting winner to put us +6.64 points up with 3 selections to run, therefore guaranteeing another winning day. The question was know how much J

Next up, Ningara’s victory (7-2) took us to +10.14 points profit before Run It Twice robbed us of a point (+9.14)

The Actuary selection Mr Knightley advised overnight at 5-1 takes Kemptons 5:15

Mr Knightley (advised overnight at 5-1) rounded off the day and took us to a +14.14 points profit. +12.12 on the 12/12/12 would have been more fitting so apologies ;{)

      

On the seventh day at Lingfield........

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips got off to a flyer with the first selection Thecornishcowboy advised at 3-1 taking the opener in emphatic style. We did have to suffer a 15p rule 4 but better that than the 5-4 SP.

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips selection Thecornishcowboy advised at 3-1 turns in ahead

Unfortunately that was the end of the fun with Work Ethic passing the post third in a three way photo beaten shd, nk, and in the one race I felt quietly confident in returning the winner, having selected Swiss Cross (5-1) and Seeking Magic (4-1), only Swiss Cross gave its true running to finish second after Seeking Magic ridden by Graham Lee backed down to 6-4 took the scenic route home.

So we end the day 0.45 points down which was a little disappointing given the nature of the loss but after such a lengthy spell of success I guess a loss of 0.45 is tolerable.

We have the eight day of Lingfield to endure, sorry I meant enjoy tomorrow with Kempton joining the fray at 2:15 and the change of scenery will be a breath of fresh air.

We have 2 x 2 point selections for subscribers tomorrow one of which is sure to raise eyebrows, plus 6 x 1 point selections, so, a busy day with the emphasis more at Kempton Park.
 

      

On the sixth day of Lingfield.....

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips had little room for error today with 2 x 1 point selections and a long winning run to protect.

It is a rarity for me to be in a position where I want to criticize a Leonna Mayor ride but when our first selection, Divine Angel, was cut to the inside rail and was closing with sufficient impetus to swallow up the long time leader, there seemed to be a moment of indecision and a lack-luster effort from Leonna to push the horse out leaving me feeling robbed and a 1/2 length second.

The Actuary selection Viewpoint advised overnight at 5-1 strikes the front for a 1.1/4 length victory

The weight of expectation now fell on to the shoulders of the second of our two selections Viewpoint.  Advised at 5-1 overnight, Viewpoint got the ideal split up the rail after sitting in mid division and simply outstayed its rivals up the straight to score by 1.1/4 lengths providing The Actuary Horse Racing Tips subscribers with another day of profit.

A little busier tomorrow as we head in to day seven at Lingfield Park with 4 x 1 point selections in three races of interest.

      

On the fifth day of Lingfield........

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips delivered another day of profit. A small profit but a profit nevertheless!

Failure by our first two selections left us 2 points down with Ada Lovelace running to freely to be able to put in a challenge to winner Freddy With A Y and Dewala’s attempt to make all over a mile and a half failing.

All hopes on delivering another day of profit fell on the shoulders of 2 point selection Harry Buckle (11-10) and Jimmy Fortune.  The SP of 8-15 suggested that this was the only horse of interest after opening at 11-10 with Bet365.

The Actuary 2 point selection Harry Buckle (white blaze) advised at 11-10 strikes the front

Quite simply Harry Buckle trounced the opposition and as short as 11-10 is, if I could find this kind of bet everyday I would be forced to thank the bookmaking fraternity for their generosity.

The Lingfield marathon continues on with day 6 tomorrow with 2 x 1 point selections.

      

On the fourth day of Lingfield............

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips ends the day with honours even!

Not too dissimilar to yesterday, we started with a lack luster performance from our first selection Walter White.  We drew another parallel with yesterday's performance in having two selections in a race that provided our first winner.

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips selection Omar Khayyam and David Probert sprint away from their rivals

In Lingfield Park's 14:15, subscribers were given Elysian (4-1) and Omar Khayyam (3-1) and as they turned for home that was the order of things. The odds on favourite Hepworth chasing the front two had been given several wake-ups from Rob Havlin and we looked on for another one, two. The preference for Elysian to be victorious unfortunately did not come to fruition as the shorter price of our two selections Omar Khayyam injected a burst of speed that could not be matched to win by 2 lengths.

1 point up, our final selection, short priced favourite Silly Billy (9-4), relinquished that advantage finishing 3^rd by 5 lengths. Nothing lost and nothing gained!

We go in to the new week with the fifth day of Lingfield Park beckoning and 3 selections including a 2 pointer mid card.

      

Spotting some very good things at very good prices!

This morning I thought I would share with you a little insight in to using The Actuary speed figures and highlight for you a couple of very good betting opportunities that manifested there selves over the last two days.

Neither opportunity appeared or figured as selections emailed to subscribers as they did meet the criteria of those methodical processes’.

Our first race was on Thursday 6^th December at Lingfield Park. Here are the speed figures published the evening prior to the meeting.

The key sign in this race with Swiss Cross is not only is it top rated and starred for its last time out performance, its ‘Course and Distance’ rating shows even greater superiority over its rivals. More surprisingly is after backing it earlier in the day at 9-2, Swiss Cross drifted out to an SP of 11-2.

The second race took look at was on Friday 7^th December, again at Lingfield Park.

Although the subsequent winner was way down the pecking order it is noticeable that in a 3yo+ Handicap, none of the top four have course and distance ratings until we arrive at Honour and Casual Mover. Once again Casual Movers ‘course and distance’ rating is far superior to its rivals, it is also superior to the top rating on last time out form. Although the result in this instance was a hard fought success it does give an insight in to connections intention.

The frequency of these scenarios are not everyday occurrences, nor are they a licence to print money but they are well worth watching out for and will keep you financially well ahead if you can exercise a little patience.