The continued search of Horse Racings Holy Grail

Continuing on from yesterdays post, below is a breakdown by age group with a view to highlighting whether there is a shift as 3 yo horses continue to mature.

August is showing more or less a 50-50 split between 3yo winners and older horses in 3yo+ races with a majority of the profit coming from the older age group.

September sees a slight shift towards winning older horses (42) but not of any major significance whereas there is a dramatic shift in the P&L in favor of the 3yo group.

In October we see the biggest shift where almost 2 of every 3 3yo+ races being won by a 3yo. I do not want to pre-empt what is happening regarding the negative P&L but I am sure I will find this will be inline with trainers starting to drop horses that have not previously run on the surface in to weak races where they believe their charge will be more than competitive.

I have made some considerations in removing races where a 3yo+ race has only 3yo entrance and also where 3yo+ races have no 3yo entrance but some allowance needs to be made, a measurement taken on the balance between 3yo and older horses appearing in any month.

Today my task will be to see whether the winning frequency of horses un-raced on the surface (unrated) increase at this time of the year and more importantly based upon previous years, when does this trend plateau.

   

       

      

25th October 2012 Wolverhampton

5:40 Breeders´ Cup Live Only On ATR Claiming Stakes Cl6 5f20y 
99.5% * Mandy Layla 99.5% 3RD 15-8
98.9% Stripped Bear 97.6% 2ND 7-2
98.7% Hardy Blue 99.6% 1ST 11-2
98.4% Chloe´s Dream 99.5%
97.9% Coconut Kisses 97.7%
97.4% Strange Angel 97.7%
95.8% Jackpot 
Bamurru 

6:10 attheraces.com Breeders´ Cup Site Now Live Fillies´ Handicap Cl5 1m141y 
101.0% Sigurwana 100.9% 2ND 6-1
100.9% Junior Diary 100.8% 3RD 11-1
100.6% Provisional 
100.4% * Miss Dashwood 1ST 13-8
100.3% Blackdown Fair 
99.7% Silvas Romana 99.7%
99.4% Feelthedifference 
99.0% Ssafa 99.6%
98.5% Amba 97.0%
98.1% Adorable Choice 98.1%
96.9% Elegant Flight 
96.5% Alkadi 
Cafe Express 

6:40 32Red Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 1m1f103y 
99.5% * Jullundar 3RD 2-1
98.8% Chant 2ND 8-1
97.2% Unison 
96.3% Hello Gorgeous
95.5% Baltic Sea 
91.4% Greenfordgirl 
90.7% Modern Society 
89.3% Moaning Butcher 
Gioia Di Vita 1ST 11-2
Dinas Lane 
It´s Only Business
Spieta 

7:10 $150M Breeders´ Cup Pools Handicap (Div I) Cl5 1m1f103y 
101.0% Welsh Nayber 
101.0% Sea Fever 101.0% 3RD 13-8
100.6% Rei D´Oro 100.6% 2ND 20-1
100.1% * Layali Dubai 100.1% 1ST 5-1
100.1% Xinbama 100.0%
100.0% Sheila´s Buddy 99.9%
99.9% The Noble Ord 
99.7% Sir Trevor 99.7%
99.6% April Ciel 99.5%
99.2% Galilee Chapel 
97.6% Parley
Voice From Above 

7:40 $150M Breeders´ Cup Pools Handicap (Div II) Cl5 1m1f103y 
100.9% Opera Buff 100.8%
100.2% * Charitable Act 100.2%
99.8% Silke Top 
99.7% Lean On Pete 99.9% 1ST 7-2
99.6% Brimstone Hill 100.4% 2ND 14-1
99.4% Island Melody 99.8%
99.0% Tawaasul 3RD 11-4
98.6% Fairyinthewind 
98.3% Hikma 99.9%
97.5% Rock Song 99.3%
96.6% Kuwait Star 
Buster Brown 

8:10 Guaranteed $2 Million Jackpot Pool Handicap Cl5 7f32y 
101.4% Sunley Pride 99.7%
100.7% Cut Across 1ST 10-1
100.7% * Willies Wonder 100.5%
100.5% Minortransgression 
100.3% Jack Smudge 
100.2% Chookie Avon 100.0% 2ND 8-1
100.2% Swendab 
100.1% Satwa Laird 100.2%
98.6% George Benjamin 
Imperator Augustus 3RD 9-1 
Namwahjobo 
Silver Rime 

8:40 32Red.com Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 7f32y 
100.4% * Lucky Mark 2ND 8-1
99.1% Peak Storm 98.6% 3RD 11-2
97.9% Winnetou 97.5%
97.8% Sweet Grace 
97.5% Benidorm 97.5%
95.9% Absolute Bearing 
92.4% Mid Yorkshire Golf 
Haftohaf 1ST 9-4
Last Supper 
Major Buckley 
Zenafire 

9:10 Breeders´ Cup Live Only On ATR Handicap Cl7 7f32y 
100.4% * Forty Proof 
100.3% Vhujon 98.6%
100.1% Avon Supreme 
99.2% Bashama 
99.1% Media Jury 
98.8% Reginald Claude 3RD 22-1
98.5% See The Storm 98.5% 2ND 5-2
98.4% Victorian Number 
98.3% Monsieur Pontaven 98.7%
97.8% Best In Show 95.5%
94.9% Renoir´s Lady 1ST 14-1

25th October 2012 Southwell

1:30 Bramley Apple Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m 
102.9% * Eastern Hills 3RD 8-1
99.8% Tahnee Mara 
99.3% No Dominion 99.3% 1ST 13-8
99.3% General Tufto 99.7%
99.2% Bonnie Prince Blue 99.1%
98.2% Riczar 98.6%
97.6% Bold Marc 99.5% 2ND 9-1
97.3% Master Of Song 
96.8% Woteva 96.8%
96.2% Thrust Control 98.6%
93.5% Thoroughly Red 
Auto Mac 
Burns Night 

2:00 Bramley Apple Handicap (Div II) Cl6 1m 
99.8% * Royal Holiday 98.7% 1ST 16-1
99.6% El Dececy 100.1% 3RD 16-1
99.5% Elusive Warrior 99.3%
98.9% River Ardeche 99.6% 2ND 7-1
98.6% This Ones For Eddy 98.6%
97.5% Tony Hollis 98.4%
Chronic Flame 
Icy Blue
Maz 
Menadati 
Mubtadi 
The Blue Banana 

2:30 Mirror Punters Club Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 1m 
Alwilda 1ST 4-1
Codebreaker 2ND 9-4
Roman Order 3RD 2-1
Dude Alert 
Fiance Fiasco 
Princess Hollow 
Valley Of Wings

3:05 Breeders´ Cup Live Only On ATR Novice Stakes Cl5 6f 
100.6% * Double Your Money 100.6% 3RD 1-3
99.8% Secret Destination 99.8% 1ST 3-1
94.9% Bougaloo 2ND 50-1
Kicken Off 

3:35 attheraces.com Breeders´ Cup Site Now Live Handicap Cl5 5f 
99.6% Irish Boy 98.9%
98.9% Greek Islands 
98.1% * Steel City Boy 98.2% 2ND 11-1
Havin´ A Good Time 1ST 7-4
Molly Jones 3RD 25-1
Fama Mac 
Littlesuzie
Made In The Shade 
Micky Mac 
Pavers Star

4:05 $150M Breeders´ Cup Pools Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m4f 
Infinitum 1ST 6-5
Hallmark Star 2ND 11-4
Toptempo 3RD 10-3
All That Remains 
Neighbourhood
Slide Show 
Straight Shot 
Thecornishwren 
Tram Express
Wise Lord 

4:40 Guaranteed $2 Million Jackpot Pool Handicap Cl5 1m4f 
101.6% Honest Deal 
101.5% Full Speed 
101.2% Agglestone Rock 
99.9% Saaboog 1ST 9-1
98.5% Jacobs Son 3RD 22-1
97.8% Mazij 99.0%
95.0% Honoured 2ND 14-1
Cape Explorer 
Crystal Rock 
Danube River 
Rayvin Black 
Souter Point 
Sun Seal 

5:10 Breeders´ Cup Live Only On ATR Apprentice Handicap Cl6 6f 
101.0% * Toothache 
100.7% Silly Billy NON RUNNER
99.8% Nafa 
99.0% Gracie´s Gift 2ND 6-1
98.7% Catalyze 
98.7% Ace Of Spies 3RD 7-1
97.9% Lady Nickandy 
95.3% Military Green 
Maltease Ah 1ST 5-1
John Coffey 
Poseidon Grey
Rafella 
Well Bank 

The continued search of Horse Racings Holy Grail

Even after a 4 year history of profit, when results are less than satisfactory for an extended period I continually beat myself up, question and query what I am doing, where improvements can be made, where things may be going wrong.

The dilemma and danger is that in making changes to compensate for short poor periods may undo the hard work and success seen over longer periods.

Although I feel that what I am currently doing will last the annals of time I am yet to exhaust new angles to exploit and I still come down my stairs each morning with fresh ideas. Some merely fanciful, others deserve closer scrutiny and invariably lead me on in to different directions.

Last night and this morning I was looking at what part the change in the race type by calendar plays in the make-up of a races.

The above chart references ONLY those races we played in NOT every race run during that particular month.

Although August shows a profit through each age group with the glut of races falling under the heading 3yo+ it is interesting to see that a small volume of 4yo+ races show a disproportion profit. It comes as no surprise that 2yo and 3yo races deliver the smallest profit with 2yo races delivering 0.61 point profit per race (11 points profit from 18 races) and the poorest performer, 3yo races delivering only 0.36 points per race.

September also sees 2yo and 3yo races as the worst performers but we are now looking at a loss. 3yo+ and 4yo+ both continue to profit. The most noticeable shift is the 3yo+ race volumes rises to 88 but delivers a much smaller ratio profit.

In hindsight perhaps it should not be so surprising that Octobers increase in 2yo and 3yo race types result in the current deficits. More disappointing is the performance in 3yo+ race types as this race type seems to mirror our fortunes.

I do not want to pre-empt what I think I am going to find as I analyse 3yo+ races in isolation today but expect to see an increase in 3yo winners as the possible cause.

I will post my findings with a full list of favourable race types tomorrow which currently highlight Eastern Hills, Veloso and Miss Dashwood as the best potential among the selections sent out last night.

      

24th October 2012 Kempton Park

5:50 Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Handicap Cl6 1m2f 
100.9% * Neige D´Antan 100.1% 2ND 8-11
100.3% Irons On Fire 3RD DH 12-1
99.7% Essell 
99.6% Cairanne 
99.4% Rapid Water
98.8% Bridge That Gap 1ST 33-1
97.4% Boris The Bold
95.6% Lightning Spirit 3RD DH 20-1
Tyrur Ted 

6:20 Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl5 6f 
100.2% * Generalyse 100.1%
99.2% Homeboy 99.1%
98.6% Mister Mackenzie 100.2%
98.5% Elusive Pursuit 
97.2% Enthrall 
96.6% Alderton 96.6%
Out Do 1ST 2-5
Gaelic Ice 2ND 50-1
Batchworth Firefly 3RD 50-1
En Ete 
Kerfuffle

6:50 Betdaq Mobile Apps/British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Div I) Cl5 1m 
98.6% * Isis Blue 
94.6% Great Ormond 
Secret Number 1ST 2-1
Pether´s Moon 2ND 14-1
Portmonarch 3RD 7-1
Celebrated Talent 
Count Curlin 
Frederick Alfred 
Jaladee 
London Bridge 
Revise
So Lyrical
Soul Intent 
Wallenberg 

7:20 Betdaq Mobile Apps/British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Div II) Cl5 1m 
99.7% * Interior Minister 
Greatwood 1ST 15-8
Stasio 2ND 6-1
Enobled 3RD 14-1
Bertie Moon 
Fehaydi
Harry Bosch
Kelvingrove 
Layl 
Makin 
Nateeja
Sadfig 
Takaathur

7:50 Betdaq Casino Games Nursery Cl4 1m 
100.6% * Filfil 100.6% 3RD 3-1
100.2% Everleigh 
99.9% Cat O´Mountain 99.9% 1ST 2-1
98.3% Club House 
97.7% Claude Greenwood 
97.0% Sesentum 
Muharrib 2ND 6-1
Causeway Foot 

8:20 Download The Free Racing Plus App Classified Stakes Cl6 7f 
99.6% * Pastures New 
99.2% Tribal I D 99.2%
98.6% Maggie Pink 1ST 20-1
98.5% Saint Boniface 
97.7% Vermeyen 97.7%
97.6% Moody Dancer 94.7%
97.5% Clapped 2ND 8-1
97.5% Scouting For Girls
97.2% True Prince 97.5% 3RD 6-1
96.7% Noosa Boy 
94.2% Kiss My Heart 94.2%
92.4% Peters Pleasure 

8:50 Tullamore Dew Handicap Cl4 7f 
101.4% Shahzan 3RD 8-1
101.2% My Kingdom 
101.0% Masai Moon 100.9%
100.8% Lujeanie 
100.6% * Chapter And Verse 101.5% 2ND 4-1   
100.4% Kakatosi 99.4%
100.3% Shifting Star 99.9%
100.2% Rio Grande 
100.1% Numeral 100.9% 1ST 7-1
99.9% Ongoodform 100.2%
99.7% Way Too Hot 99.3%
99.6% Good Authority 101.0%
Oneladyowner 
Take Cover 

9:20 Glenfiddich Handicap Cl5 1m 
101.2% Ghostwing 
101.0% * Silverware 100.1%
100.8% Mullins Way 81.6%
100.8% Switchback 100.8%
100.3% Paradise Spectre
99.9% Great Expectations 
99.8% Methayel 99.5% 3RD 10-1
99.7% Daruband 98.4% 1ST 7-1
99.1% Abigails Angel 98.7%
99.0% Dozy Joe 99.9%
98.9% Silver Bullitt 
98.5% Roxelana 3RD 9-2