Don't we all love a happy ending?

Today was the first time I would see whether my theory on adjusting 3yo ratings, based upon potential improvement since its LTO, would hold any water in real-time rather than a retrospective view.

The race in question, Wolverhampton’s 6:10; the horse, 7-2 favourite Shestheman. To say I was supremely confident was an understatement. Having taken all the 7-1 available earlier in the day I would have felt reasonably comfortable in spending my winnings before the race - Yes, that confident! The bet wasn't made on the strength of filling the above criteria but as one of today’s Actuary selections.

There are times when watching a race when you instinctively know from the horses’ position that things are not going to work out. Shestheman broke on terms but Father Ted made little effort to hold a positive position. At the 3 furlong pole he could be seen to be bouncing up and down like a rubber ball before dropping to the rear of the field. Race over!

BUT that’s not the end of the story. Not known for my spontaneity as I am more the careful, calculating type, moments before the off in the last race I noted the following.

Above in the last column are the figures that I published to the blog. In the middle, the 3yo adjusted figures.  We have a tie between 4+ Yungaburra and 3yo Flamborough Breeze. Who should be riding the latter but Father Ted!  With speed and dexterity I never knew I had I had logged in to my Bet365 account and placed a bet large enough to soothe the pains of the day away and give me some happy at 10-1.

As they turned for home I had lost any hope of a return. After falling out the stalls and with two furlongs to race Father Ted had managed to beat only the pulled up Green Mountain. In a 6f sprint, from the 5 draw, 2 furlongs out , coming 8 horses wide at the back of the field, does little to inspire any confidence in getting a positive result.
At the furlong pole we had passed two horses and had started to fly but surely too late.
Half a furlong out Flamborough Breeze could have been Pegasus and at the line, a comfortable neck success.

If you are ever asked the question ‘What is the difference between abject misery and happiness?’ I can tell you the answer is a neck!  

      

30th October 2012 Wolverhampton

4:40 32Red Maiden Stakes (Div I) Cl5 7f32y
98.0% * Lilly White
Unknown Villain 1ST 9-2
Horsted Keynes 2ND 11-10
Bartack 3RD 8-1
Bapak Muda
Bright Glow
Little Eli
Marju´s Quest
Midnight Warrior
Orions Hero
Sewn Up

5:10 32Red Maiden Stakes (Div II) Cl5 7f32y
98.9% * Mundahesh 1ST 1-3
94.4% Cash Rich
93.5% July Waits
Declamation 2ND 6-1
Pink Anemone 3RD 25-1
Loucal
Love Marmalade
Manchestar
Star Spun

5:40 32Red.com Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 1m141y
100.0% * Glory City 99.9% 1ST 6-4
97.9% Mandy The Nag 97.9%
96.9% Messageinabottle
95.0% Honey Haven
94.0% Greenfordgirl
Sicur 2ND 11-10
King Muro 3RD 9-1
Alzavola
Common Courtesy
Mjaal

6:10 32Red Casino Handicap Cl4 1m1f103y
101.1% * Shestheman 100.9%
100.5% Patriotic 100.1%
100.5% I Confess 98.7%
100.1% Night And Dance
100.0% Saharia 2ND 6-1
100.0% Afraah 1ST 7-1
99.9% Spanish Plume 98.8% 3RD 28-1
99.5% Kung Hei Fat Choy
99.2% Lady Macduff
99.0% Standpoint 99.9%
98.9% Knowe Head 100.1%
98.3% Thunderstruck 100.6%
98.2% Final Drive 102.1%

6:40 32Red Supporting British Racing Nursery (Div I) Cl5 5f216y
99.6% * Work Ethic 99.6% 2ND 3-1
99.3% * Attenshun 99.3%
98.9% Pearl Noir 98.9%
98.6% Cuisine 100.2%
98.2% Fat Bottom Girl 98.1%
98.1% Time For Lambrini
98.1% Vergality Ridge 96.6%
Dream Ally 1ST 8-1
Romanoff 3RD 9-2

7:10 32Red Supporting British Racing Nursery (Div II) Cl5 5f216y
100.2% * Layla´s Oasis 100.1%
99.5% Cymeriad 98.6%
99.4% Blazing Knight 99.4% 1ST 7-4
99.4% Grace Hull 99.0%
99.0% My Sweet Lord 98.0% 2ND 20-1
96.8% Multisure
95.3% Little Miss Zuri
Ayasha 3RD 7-1
My Boy Bill

7:40 £32 Bonus At 32Red.com Handicap Cl4 5f216y
102.0% * Hopes N Dreams 101.9%
100.7% Lucky Dan 99.4%
100.6% Taffe 100.5% 3RD 6-1
100.0% Italian Tom 99.2%
100.0% Mount Hollow 100.3% 2ND 16-1
99.9% Beat The Bell 101.5% 1ST 4-1
99.8% Cyflymder
99.7% Diman Waters 99.7%
99.6% Bandstand 100.2%
98.1% Fathsta 99.7%
97.9% Secret Millionaire
Parisian Pyramid

8:10 32RedBet.com Handicap Cl6 5f216y
100.2% * Yungaburra 98.4%
99.9% Flamborough Breeze 1ST 9-1
99.7% Lucky Mark 100.3% 2ND 6-4
99.3% Green Mountain
99.3% Avonlini 99.3%
99.0% Widow Flower 99.0%
98.8% Rightcar 98.1%
98.6% Kaylee
98.3% Stans Deelyte
98.1% Media Jury 99.1%
97.2% Athaakeel 98.9%
96.2% Venetias Dream 3RD 13-2

27th October 2012 Wolverhampton

5:45 Breeders´ Cup Live Only On ATR Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 5f216y
99.1% * Kryena´s Rose 99.0%
98.6% Golden Pursuit 98.6%
98.4% Red Tulip 98.3% 2ND 6-4
98.2% Daisie Cutter
98.1% Alhaarth Beauty 3RD 12-1
96.6% I´m Watching
94.2% Bryter Layter
Almalekiah 1ST 5-2
Gold Beau
Shatin Secret
Val´s Diamond

6:15 Follow Ladbrokes On Twitter Handicap (Div I) Cl5 5f216y
102.9% * Song Of Parkes 100.8%
101.9% Above Standard 101.9% 3RD 5-2
101.1% Avonvalley 99.7% 2ND 10-1
100.9% Available 99.5%
100.8% Mcmonagle
100.0% Ginger Ted 100.8% 1ST 4-1
99.7% Burnhope 99.7%
99.5% Above The Stars 100.6%
99.0% Full Shilling 99.3%
Alive And Kicking
Sextons House

6:45 Follow Ladbrokes On Twitter Handicap (Div II) Cl5 5f216y
100.5% Drive Home
100.1% Blown It 99.6%
100.1% * Chambles 99.6%
99.5% Gap Princess 100.0%
99.4% Ryan Style 99.2% 3RD 11-2
99.3% Mon Ami Jolie 99.2%
99.1% Gabrial´s Gift
99.0% Dishy Guru
98.9% * L´Astre De Choisir 99.0%
98.5% Red Senor 2ND 7-1
98.1% Pick A Little 100.3%
97.8% Jinky 1ST 10-1
97.8% Topflight Princess

7:15 wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m4f50y
100.7% Justbookie Dot Com 3RD 13-2
100.3% Pendragon
100.3% Spey Song 100.2%
100.2% * Cape Safari 100.7%
100.1% Son Vida
100.1% Star Date
100.0% Xpres Maite
99.9% City Of The Kings
99.5% A Little Bit Dusty 99.4% 1ST 12-1
99.4% Boa 100.5% 2ND 6-1
Tri Nations
Underwritten

7:45 Like Ladbrokes On Facebook Nursery Cl6 1m141y
99.8% * Progenitor 99.7% 2ND 7-4
99.1% Getaway Car DH 3RD 6-1
99.0% Super Cookie 99.0% DH 3RD 7-1
99.0% Gabrial The Duke
98.9% Sekumkum 98.9%
98.9% Lea Valley Black 100.0%
98.8% Girl Of Cadiz
98.0% Run It Twice 1ST 33-1
97.8% Gabrial The Boss 98.6%
97.2% Pairumani Prince 97.2%
Alfie´s Rose
Excellent Mariner
North Weald

8:15 attheraces.com Breeders´ Cup Site Now Live Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m141y
100.9% Demolition
100.3% Elijah Pepper 1ST 15-2 
100.2% Bint Alzain 99.5%
100.1% Kyllachy Star
99.9% Aciano 100.0%
99.8% * Desert Vision 99.8% 3RD 14-1
99.7% * Berengar
99.4% Indian Art 99.7%
98.8% One Way Or Another 102.0% 2ND 12-1
98.6% Thatcherite 100.3%
98.2% Aquilifer 99.2%
Brocklebank
Leviathan

8:45 Download The Ladbrokes Mobile App Fillies´ Handicap Cl5 1m1f103y
100.6% Amelia May 3RD 15-2
100.6% * Ukrainian Princess
100.6% Apache Glory
100.5% Lady Arabella 100.5%
100.5% Talk Of The North 100.6%
100.3% Cheers For Thea 99.9%
100.3% Hunt A Mistress
99.6% Chatterer 1ST 7-1
97.0% Zaina
96.8% My Own Way Home
Easter Diva 2ND 20-1
Tidal Run

9:15 Ladbrokes Game On! Handicap Cl6 1m4f50y
101.8% * Bobs Her Uncle 3RD 13-2
100.6% District Attorney
100.3% Quiet Appeal 98.8%
100.0% Always Eager 100.0%
99.6% Kathleensluckylad
99.5% Rockgoat
99.5% Chella Thriller 99.4%
99.3% Thecornishcockney 2ND 8-1
98.7% Kittens 1ST 7-2
98.4% I´m Harry
98.2% Saucy Cat
Zambezi Tiger

3 years old beats up the older boys!

Much to my surprised, the result from investigating what I expected to be an increase in unrated winners as summer leaves us behind and Autumn descends was not the case. In fact the complete reverse is true with our most successful summer month August showing 30% of All Weather winners had not previously run on the surface, September 19% and October currently reaching the dizzy heights of 9%. This has completely thrown me of guard but as always during the investigation I unearthed another consideration.

It is commonly accepted that 2yo and 3yo horse improve over the course of the season. So lets take a scenario where a 3yo (A) has its first runs in March and records a rating of 98%. 3YO (B) ran 7 days ago (October) and records a rating of 98.5%. The ratings would suggest that 3yo (B) will beat 3yo (A).

The practice of compiling a speed figure based upon a particular performance makes no allowance for the likely improvement we are likely to see from 3yo (A) between March and today. The chart, above compiled from 4 years of my records would suggest that 3yo (A) is likely to have improved significantly enough to beat 3yo (B). Although it would set a dangerous precedence to adjust ratings to compensate for time lapsed between today and LTO dates I think that having a rating sit alongside the LTO rating for reference would not go amiss.

Equally significant from the chart above is the parallel of improvement in older horses until August when they appear to plateau and are overtaken by 3yo. This was bared out in yesterdays ramblings which highlighted 3yo's ruling the roost at this time of year and go on to take 66% of 3yo+ races. It would also suggest that we are likely to see the same trend continue on in to November.

Good luck today with whatever you play!    

      

26th October 2012 Wolverhampton

5:40 Bet toteplacepot Text Tote To 89660 Classified Stakes Cl6 5f216y 
99.7% * Lady Platinum Club 99.2% 3RD 9-4
98.7% Copper Falls RR
97.9% Nafa 
95.8% Peters Pleasure 95.3%
95.6% Blueberry Fizz 98.1%
95.4% Turn The Tide 95.4%
94.8% Smiley Miley 90.9%
92.5% Gypsy Rider 92.5% 2ND 11-4
90.8% Rosa Lottie 
My Good Brother 1ST 11-1
Artillery Train 

6:10 Follow Us On Twitter @WolvesRaces Selling Stakes Cl6 5f216y 
99.1% * Marmot Bay 97.5% 1ST 15-2
99.1% Sojoum 98.2%
98.5% We Are City 99.0%
98.2% Tyson The Byson 98.2%
98.1% Archie Stevens 98.1% 3RD 2-1
98.0% Millie N Aire 98.2%
97.5% Kicken Off 
94.2% Bryter Layter 
Cracking Choice 2ND 10-1
Avanzare 
Hit The Note
Only For You 
Red Chubbs 

6:40 Bet totequadpot Text Tote To 89660 Handicap (Div I) Cl5 1m5f194y 
101.8% Luctor Emergo 
101.5% Fourth Generation 3RD 12-1
100.9% Almail
100.3% Kazbow 100.2%
100.1% English Summer 100.1%
99.9% * Aleksandar 99.8% 1ST 9-2
99.1% Toughness Danon 
98.2% Brouhaha 98.7% 2ND 22-1
97.1% Authentication
Passion Planet 

7:10 Bet totequadpot Text Tote To 89660 Handicap (Div II) Cl5 1m5f194y 
101.5% * Royal Entourage 3RD 11-1
100.8% Saint Helena 99.7%
100.5% Hurakan 
100.3% Wayne Manor 
100.0% Honourable Knight 
99.5% Peachez 2ND 14-1
98.9% Kames Park 99.4%
98.5% Rythmic 1ST 8-1
97.5% Hector´s Chance 
96.9% Welsh Bard 96.8%
Adatara 
Cubism 

7:40 Breeders´ Cup LIVE Only On ATR Handicap Cl6 7f32y 
100.1% Athwaab 2ND 8-1
99.7% Lord Franklin 3RD 7-2
99.6% Elegant Muse 100.1% 1ST 8-1
99.5% Chester Deelyte 99.5%
99.2% * Desertcougar 99.4%
99.0% Men Don´t Cry 98.5%
98.8% Odd Ball 97.8%
98.4% Keys Of Cyprus 98.4%
97.8% Royal Selection 98.3%
96.9% Yes It´s The Boy 98.0%
96.5% Fleetwoodsands 99.3%
95.8% Darrow 

8:10 totepool Mobile Text Tote To 89660 Handicap Cl6 1m1f103y 
100.2% * Tiger Webb 100.2% 3RD 9-2 
99.8% Arctic Galaxy 98.7%
99.7% Hard Road 99.7% 1ST 11-4 
99.5% Nolecce 99.3%
99.5% Edgware Road 101.7% 2ND 10-3
99.1% Beautiful Lando 99.1%
99.1% Retreat Content 98.2%
98.7% Echo Dancer 
98.6% Strawberry Flavour 98.7%
97.2% Future Wonder
Another Squeeze 
Monthly Medal 

8:40 attheraces.com Breeders´ Cup Site Now Live Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 1m1f103y 
101.2% * Any Other Day NON RUNNER
100.3% Revered Citizen 2ND 5-2
99.7% Syncopate 
99.1% Fly Solo 99.0% 3RD 5-1
94.6% No Diamond 
91.1% Super Smile 94.8%
90.2% Royal Gig 
Starfield 1ST 7-4
Reverberate 

9:10 Racing Post Form With totepool Mobile Handicap Cl6 1m141y 
100.4% Fortunate Bid 99.4% 3RD 12-1
100.1% Flipping 97.8%
99.6% * Goal 99.9% 2ND 7-4
99.5% Rainsborough 
99.5% * Thane Of Cawdor 
99.4% Eilean Mor 99.3%
99.1% North Central 
98.7% Crucis Abbey 
98.6% Prohibition 98.0%
98.0% Pastures New 99.5%
97.5% Sasheen 99.9% 1ST 28-1
97.0% Broughton Place 
96.7% Praxios 99.3%