Dare we dream - Langley in the 8:30

A little more than I bargained for today and now we are looking at something a little more than coincidence. When looking for methodical selection processes and getting today's results you start asking the question off what longevity is this likely to have. Greed also kicks in and I am questioning why I left Espirit de Midas out who so nearly qualified and won at 9-2.

Whether Langley wins or loses this is powerful stuff and I doubt I will sleep tonight. 

4:10 Kempton Glass Office 

4:45 Kempton Enery  

5:30 Wolverhampton Fast Finian \ Lady Layla

6:00 Wolverhampton Prime Exhibit

8:30 Wolverhampton Langley

      

VDW + MDB = Todays E.W. All Weather Canadian

Some of you I am sure are familiar with the name VDW and the five methodical stages outlined by by him in the forum pages of the Raceform. As the items were always written in retrospect, there were claims that VDW was the fiction of the page editor at the time Tony Peach.

Fact or fiction, this was manna from heaven to a teenage Mark Dillon-Boylan who even in those informative years had a strong believe that sound methodical processes would always win out over the scatter gun approach adopted by most.

The key phrase used in one of the correspondence that resonated with me most was ‘If you want to know where the bus is going you need check with the driver’ or words to that effect. This was interpreted by me as a need to understand the trainers’ intention, something frequently overlooked in favour of form. The question was always how to apply this into a 5 element, numerical picture of a horses form. The only elements that had not been fully explained were the final two columns of figures used by VDW which became known as the missing link. As the explained elements made no offering towards the trainers intentions I have always felt that the final two columns had to have some relationship with this phrase.

A couple of days ago after a frustrating day where new-comers and lightly raced horses had undone my hard work, I woke in the middle of the night with a potential solution.

The following day I applied the principles of the VDW + the missing link (MDB) to the days All Weather card. I have seen many interpretations of the method and I was keen not to fall in to the trap of diluting the method to ensure a selection(s) but it was apparent that in these different times certain adjustments had to be made. As an example, applying the prize money style ability rating would be pretty ineffective given the low prize money on offer today.

5:30 Kempton Neige D’Antan WON 7-4

7:00 Kempton Pravada Street WON 10-3

All though the results were not breathe-taking I was reasonably happy with how both horses had run and was understandably anticipating the following days racing.

   9:10 Kempton Raffinn WON 4-1

Again nothing conclusive about the one selection and I have been here before, again anticipating the following day especially as the price of the single selection is likely to put one of my criteria changes fully to the test.

8:50 Kempton Roxy Flyer WON 16-1

OK, this is getting interesting. Not a penny has left my pocket at this point as this is just a watching brief but I can see no harm in a tomorrow in having two small stake E.W. Canadians and after such a disappointing week it would be more disappointing not to share any success with you guys. I would suggest expecting nothing other than a bit of entertainment, anything else is a bonus :)

4:10 Kempton Glass Office

4:45 Kempton Enery

5:30 Wolverhampton Fast Finian \ Lady Layla

6:00 Wolverhampton Prime Exhibit

8:30 Wolverhampton Langley

Wish us luck J.

      

7th September 2012 Kempton Park

6:20 Midland Facilities Apprentice Handicap Cl4 1m 
100.9% * Final Drive 100.4%
100.9% Roayh 3RD 7-4
100.6% Snow Bay 100.6%
99.9% Angelic Upstart 99.6% 2ND 5-2
99.6% Junket 99.2%
98.8% Hamis Al Bin 99.3%
Forgive 1ST 8-1

6:50 Letchworth Couriers/British Stallion Studs E B F Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m 
97.4% Concise 1ST 3-1
Ostaad 2ND 4-1
Omnipresent 3RD 10-1
Burma Days 
Cast A Vision 
Inherited 
Mutamaiz 
Pentagram
Tally Stick 
The Obvious Choice 
Thomasina 
Zain Heart

7:20 eventmasters.co.uk/British Stallion Studs E B F Maiden Stakes Cl5 6f 
99.0% * Gravitational 
97.7% Admirals Walk 
Inka Surprise 1ST 9-4
Pedro Serrano 2ND 11-1
Invincible Warrior 3RD 14-1
Bapak Besar 
Desert Command 
East Texas Red 
Echo Of Silence 
Noble Deed
Surge Ahead

7:50 eventmasters.co.uk Nursery Cl5 6f 
99.6% * Wellingrove 
99.6% Meet Me Halfway 2ND 7-1
97.2% Bay Laurel 96.2%
97.2% Our Golden Girl 96.9%
96.8% Zain Spirit 
96.2% Stormy Times 
78.4% Double Jeopardy 
Cappadocia 1ST 8-1
Autumn Shadow 3RD 16-1
Deepest Blue 3RD 11-2
Lisa´s Legacy 
Palladius 

8:20 eventmasters.co.uk/Irish Stallion Farms E B F Fillies´ Conditions Stakes Cl3 7f 
100.3% * Queen Aggie 3RD 6-4
94.0% Afro 93.3%
Talent 1ST 6-4
Hanzada 2ND 7-1
Honeymoon Express 
Rainbow Beauty 

8:50 D & G Consultancy Services Handicap Cl3 1m3f 
105.4% * Cosmic Sun 104.2%
102.6% Silent Moment 102.7%
102.4% Sandusky 102.1%
102.3% Roxy Flyer 1ST 16-1
102.0% Starluck 102.1%
101.3% Ramona Chase 102.9%
101.2% Spensley 102.6%
101.2% Position 3RD 8-1
101.1% Mountain Range 
97.3% Nicholascopernicus
Trader Jack 2ND 11-4
Assizes 

9:20 eventmasters.co.uk Handicap Cl5 2m 
101.6% Saborido 101.3% 1ST 4-1
101.3% * Den Maschine 2ND 3-1
98.6% Handles For Forks 98.6%
98.0% Ponte Di Rosa
97.5% Mollyow 
Hawridge Star 3RD 13-2
Sandbanks Sizzler 

Kempton Park, promising start, shame about the end results

With a not to hard to find top rated winner in the first at Kempton Park and the 16-1 and 12-1 minor places filled by the top four rated. A feat repeated in the third race with Hardy Blue 6-1 and minors at 6-1 and 5-1 we looked set fair for a profitable evening.

    

Unfortunately not! I don't think it would be to unkind to say that two poor rides, firstly from Tom Queally on Grey Seal and an almost identical performance by Tadhg O'Shea on the heavily backed Yasir. Both made a conscious decision not to stay on the pace dropping their mounts out the back after breaking on terms. Both made up impressive ground to become competitive , but making the ground and expecting their mounts to continue sprinting for two furlongs was asking a tad to much.

Both mounts were backed down from 11-1 overnight, with Yasir going off at an SP of 4-1 but I understand that the rumours that Tadgh O'Shea is sponsored by William Hill are unfounded :)

In hindsight, should I have laid them at the shorter price?

Watching your selections backed down from 11-1 to 4-1 is a great confidence boost to its chances and I doubt I would have been happy with 11-4 had it won! :(

Pickings are likely to be thin on the ground over the next couple of days with a host of 2yo races but there is the potential that experience will overcome hype for some nice prices.
     

      

6th September 2012 Kempton Park

5:30 Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Classified Stakes (Div I) Cl6 1m2f
101.1% * Neige D´Antan 1ST 7-4
100.4% Princess Willow 3RD 12-1
100.0% Avon Supreme
99.9% Roman Senate 2ND 16-1
99.2% * Hard Road
98.1% Raspberry Fizz
97.2% Star Kingdom
97.2% Red Yarn
96.8% Hubood
95.7% Fauran
Chapter Nine

6:00 Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Classified Stakes (Div II) Cl6 1m2f
100.2% * Phase Shift 3RD 3-1
99.8% Chez Vrony 99.7%
99.8% Onertother
99.3% Maccabees
99.2% Mayan Flight
96.5% Navajo Charm 2ND 4-1
96.3% Thecornishcowboy 1ST 7-1
94.7% Super Smile
94.0% Lyrical Gangster
93.9% Miss Boops 93.3%

6;30 Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Nursery Cl5 5f
99.6% * Hardy Blue 96.7% 1ST 6-1
99.4% We Are City 2ND 5-1
99.2% Napinda 97.9%
97.8% Blazing Knight 3RD 6-1
96.8% Windforpower
96.6% Snow Angel
Confidential Creek
Dawn Catcher
Harleys Rocket

7:00 Betdaq Mobile Apps Classified Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m
100.5% Zaheeb 100.5%
100.0% D´Urberville
99.9% Pravda Street 1ST 10-3
99.5% Saucy Buck 99.6%
99.3% Handheld
99.1% * Tartan Gunna
98.8% Officer In Command 100.4% 3RD 9-2
98.1% Zip Lock
98.0% Spinning Ridge 99.1%
96.5% Koo And The Gang
94.9% Moment In The Sun 98.0%
86.6% Rufus Stone 2ND 33-1

7:30 Betdaq Casino Games Handicap Cl5 1m
100.3% * Grey Seal
100.0% Alkadi 2ND 9-2
99.2% Confirmed
98.8% Opera Buff 99.1%
98.3% Falcon´s Reign
97.7% Dubai Sunshine
96.8% Red Bay
96.4% Engrossing 97.3% 1ST 5-1
95.0% Cape Joy
Rock Song 3RD 20-1
Kung Hei Fat Choy
Red Hot Secret

8:00 sportinglife.com E B F Maiden Fillies´ Stakes Cl5 6f
98.1% * Wildcrafting
97.9% Royal Guinevere
Spokeswoman 1ST 11-4
Jubilee Diamond 2ND EVENS
Broughtons Charm 3RD 33-1
Amirah
Carina Palace
Eminently
Ishisoba
Koala Bear
Speed Date
Sunny Hollow

8:30 McArthurglen Designer Outlets Handicap Cl4 1m4f
102.7% * Yasir 103.0%
102.5% The Holyman
102.3% Kiwayu 3RD 7-4
102.2% Refractor 100.3% 1ST 12-1
102.0% Art Scholar 101.7%
102.0% Twice Bitten 102.2%
101.5% Taaresh 100.0%
100.5% Kuda Huraa 2ND 10-1
Albert Bridge
Maastricht

9:00 Read Nick Luck In Racing Plus Handicap Cl6 1m3f
99.9% The New Black
99.7% Viola Da Gamba 100.7%
99.6% Cape Alex
99.5% * Siouxies Dream
99.5% Stag Hill 3RD 25-1
99.4% Twin Shadow
98.7% Bramshill Lass 100.3% 1ST 20-1
98.4% The Ploughman 95.2%
98.3% Daring Damsel 99.6%
97.7% Welsh Bard 2ND 9-2
Al Qatari
Operation Tracer

The Actuary uses 'Get Out Gaol Free' card

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips subscribers had a nervous wait for the result of a short-head photo finish to decide their fait for the day in the lucky last at Wolverhampton.

After a promising run from 2 point selection Royal Steps who would have surely finished closer to its market rivals than 1.1/4 lengths had it not been held behind as gaps closed on it, and the comments from Richard Hughes, rider of the winner Woodlands Way that he would be hopeful of some 'black type' for his mount, all looked promising for our later selection Pippy. Pippy had caught Royal Steps late over 7f last time out.

Isthmus failure in the 4:00 and then Pippy never getting in to her race left us 4 points down. Liam Keniry's opting for Hinton Admiral from the Conor Dore pair proved insignificant as it trail home last and we were 5 points down and looking for Amoure Medici to save the day.

 Amoure Medici (pink) and Sir Bruno charge to the line

Amoure Medici advised overnight at 13-2 (Victor Chandler) broke well and led stalked by Glenridding who faded coming of the final bend. Sir Bruno took up the challenge and clearly headed the selection as they drove for the line only for Paul Mulrennan to get back up on Amoure Medici in the shadow of the post to win by the shortest of short-heads.

So we go from abject misery to 1.5 points profit in 1m 27.89 secs. That was truly the 'Get Out Gaol Free' card.

See you for Kempton Park on Wednesday :)    

      

3rd September 2012 Wolverhampton

2:30 Holiday Inn Wolverhampton Nursery Cl5 5f216y 
97.8% * Somethingboutmary 
96.5% Secret Symphony 
Avec Rose 1ST 9-4
Cuisine 2ND 15-2
Ryedale Valley 3RD 9-2
Believe In Me 
Columella 
Dust Whirl

3:00 Like Us On Facebook Wolverhampton Racecourse Maiden Fillies´ Stakes Cl5 5f216y 
99.7% * Royal Steps 3RD 7-2
96.6% Woodlandsway 1ST 7-4
94.7% Fat Bottom Girl 
Give Way Nelson 2ND 13-8
Annie Gogh 
Aquila Carina 
Best To Better 
Grace Hull
Rangooned 
Uknowwhatushoulddo 
Underwhelm 
Windsor Secret 

3:30 wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap Cl4 1m1f103y 
102.3% * Star Links 99.7% 1ST 4-1
101.2% Knowe Head 100.7%
100.9% Ajeeb 100.7% 3RD 17-2
100.8% Borug 2ND 3-1
100.3% Simayill 
99.6% Aerodynamic 
98.4% Hikma 
98.1% Grizzle 99.2%
97.6% Lucky Money 
97.5% Sound Advice 98.7%
94.5% Pilgrims Rest 

4:00 Download Our iPhone App Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m1f103y 
101.5% Ruban 3RD 8-11
100.1% * Isthmus 
97.9% Glaisdale
97.0% Natural Bloom 
Kota Sas 2ND 12-1
Representation 1ST 13-2
Lieutenant Dan
Strawberry Flavour
Surreal 
Totalize 
Zavier 

4:30 Name A Race To Enhance Your Brand Nursery Cl4 1m141y 
99.7% * Pippy 
97.7% Abraq 
97.1% Blue Wave 
Titus Titan 1ST 5-1
Grandorio 2ND 15-8
Cheektocheek 

5:00 Book Hospitality At Wolverhampton Racecourse Handicap Cl6 2m119y 
102.2% * Hootie 
101.2% Plus Fours 
99.7% Jacob McCandles 3RD 10-1
99.3% Jawaab 2ND 7-1
99.3% Looks Like Rain 1ST 11-4
98.0% Scripturist 
96.9% Green To Gold 
95.3% Corvette 98.5%
Madame Gazelle

5:30 The Black Country´s Only Racecourse Handicap (Div I) Cl5 7f32y 
101.0% The Happy Hammer 99.5% 1ST 9-1
100.3% * Unlimited 100.4%
100.0% Blue Dune 
99.6% Conry 100.0% 3RD 11-4
99.5% Yungaburra 100.1%
98.7% Hinton Admiral 
98.5% Al´s Memory 2ND 11-4
98.2% Lastkingofscotland 100.4%
98.1% Brimstone Hill

6:00 The Black Country´s Only Racecourse Handicap (Div II) Cl5 7f32y 
100.9% * Chambles 101.3%
100.2% Hawk Moth 100.3%
100.0% Great Charm 
99.4% Kipchak 100.2%
99.3% Sir Bruno 99.9% 2ND 8-1
99.1% Glenridding 100.3% 3RD 9-2
99.1% One For Joules 100.5%
98.8% Amoure Medici 100.5% 1ST 11-4
98.1% Memphis Man 91.8%

The sun continues to shine on The Actuary subscribers

The final day of August did no justice to what was another good month for The Actuary Horse Racing Tips. As we put closure to the summer months and head in to Autumn I feel that some ghosts have been exorcised regarding the summer flat lining of the past.

The only regret for me is for those customers that annually skip away to the turf each spring returning in the autumn. It would have been good for them to have enjoyed the success.

On the positive side, given that historically the summer is not as lucrative as our winter campaigns, I cannot help but feel that after such a successful summer that the coming season is going to be a bit special.

Let’s take a look at some figures, firstly for August 2012 and then the summer as a whole.

AUGUST 2012

ON THE MONEY: 34.50 points

THE ACTUARY: 4.88 points

TRIP HANDICAP: 20.50 points

SPEED AND CLASS: 13.50 points

TOTAL: 73.38 points

So over the three months June, July and August we are now looking at figures of

JUNE, JULY AND AUGUST

ON THE MONEY: 50.19 points

THE ACTUARY: 26.17 points

TRIP HANDICAP: 11.81 points

SPEED AND CLASS: 60.67 points

TOTAL: 148.84 points

To £20 stakes we have a profit of £2,976.80 with some memorable gambles along the way: Whitford 20-1, Hurricane Spirit 16-1, Sand Skier 12-1, Kings Masque 16-1 (on the turf), Mataaleb 10-1, My Own Way Home 10-1 to name just a few.

You are probably thinking ‘and he gives these months for free, he must be mad’. OK, I concede that you probably weren’t thinking the first part J

With 20 plus meetings in September and the return to the regular Wolverhampton Friday evening cards, things are starting to ramp up on the All Weather front so some busy days ahead.

If you haven’t subscribed yet and would like to, this is your call to action. Simply visit the blog CLICK HERE and press that subscribe button.

      

31st August 2012 Wolverhampton

6:20 Ladbrokes Game On! Apprentice Handicap Cl6 1m141y
100.5% Smart Affair
99.5% Baby Driver 98.4%
99.4% Princess Gail 99.6%
99.2% * American Lover 100.8% 3RD 16-1
99.1% Mighty Motive 98.4%
98.7% Perfect Outlook 100.3%
98.6% Imperial Wave 2ND 6-1
97.3% Opus Maximus 100.0%
95.4% Calypso Magic 100.3%
91.6% Meglio Ancora 1ST 13-2

6:50 Susan Box Memorial Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 1m141y
99.8% Medhyaar 2ND 10-11
98.5% Cluaindubhloch
98.3% * Green Mitas 98.2% 3RD 7-2
97.2% Cufflink 1ST 9-4
94.0% Blackamoor Harry
91.7% My Honychurch

7:20 nantwichveneers.com Claiming Stakes Cl5 7f32y
98.5% Northern Harbour 3RD 28-1
98.3% Age Of Bronze
97.4% * Cymeriad 2ND 33-1
97.4% Grace Of Hearts
96.7% Annie Besant
96.0% Wordsaplenty
90.1% Wicked Tara
Charlie Em 1ST 4-6
Juhaina
Karl Marx
Lucky Suit

7:50 wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Fillies´ Selling Stakes Cl6 5f20y
98.3% * Kimvara
97.8% Reinvigorate
97.5% Red Star Lady 98.4% 3RD 7-1
96.9% Hardy Blue 1ST 9-1
95.7% Coconut Kisses 97.8%
94.0% Shirley´s Pride 96.7%
Chloe´s Dream 2ND 25-1
Baltic Sea
Fat Bottom Girl
Lady Jean
Lyrical Vibe
Strange Angel
True Ally

8:20 Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap Cl6 5f216y
100.0% Juarla 98.4%
99.9% * Secret Queen 100.9%
99.8% Indieslad 2ND 13-2
99.6% Almaty Express 100.2%
99.1% Vhujon 100.0%
99.1% Purley Queen 100.2%
99.0% Aubrietia 100.5% 3RD 5-2
98.6% Russian Bullet 99.4%
98.5% Fantasy Fighter 99.7%
97.8% Poseidon Grey
Theresnoneedfordat 1ST 7-2

8:50 Ladbrokes Bet On Your Mobile Handicap Cl5 1m4f50y
101.7% Any Given Dream 101.0% 3RD 7-1
101.2% Jalors
99.7% Jeer 97.1%
99.7% * King´s Road 2ND 33-1
99.5% Lyric Poet 100.0%
99.0% * Den Maschine 100.1% 1ST 11-1
99.0% Feisty Champion
98.9% Ostentation
98.5% Baharat
98.4% A Little Bit Dusty
De Rigueur

9:20 Download The Ladbrokes Mobile App Handicap Cl6 1m1f103y
100.7% * Exceedexpectations
100.5% Chella Thriller NON RUNNER
99.4% Lean On Pete 99.8% 2ND 7-1
99.0% Graylyn Valentino 1ST 9-1
99.0% Arte Del Calcio
98.4% Chelsea Mick
98.3% Siouxies Dream 98.8%
97.8% Attain
97.1% Edraaq 99.5%
96.6% Source Of Light
Rhossili Bay 3RD 16-1
Zain Glory