A B.J. my embarrassment and another winning Canadian!

Well! I have to admit to feeling a bit embarrassed when I receive an email from a subscriber telling me how to use my figures to better effect than I am suggesting. Admitting I might be wrong is not a problem. When you are involved in a sport where you are likely to be wrong a majority of the time and (i hasten to add) you don’t have to be right as often as you think to make a profit! ‘wrong’ isn't a problem. What the email may of highlighted is my over cautious approach which I recognise as my ‘Achilles Heel’.

Before I share the contents of the email, I would like to say that I don’t whole heartedly endorse anything that I have not proven to show longevity. So my sharing is not an endorsement but something I will continue to monitor with interest as I am sure you all will!

Firstly, the email from ‘BJ’ (I know! let the tittering begin) started by assuming that the selections I had made in the first post ‘Could this be the ‘Holy Grail’ for Horse Racing?’ were arrived at by using this selection method, which is NOT the case, although it arrives at the same conclusions.

From the subscribers page he had ‘cut’n’pasted’ then sorted yesterday’s Wolverhampton card in a spreadsheet by the last column i.e. LTO finishing speed by highest to lowest arriving at the following after non-runners had been removed:

(editted down to show the top half)

‘BJ’ (OK its not funny any more) removed the entries that were below the top rated in each race to produce his top 5:

As Brian suggested, retrospectively, by applying the same process to Mondays Wolverhampton card he arrived at the same selections as I had made for my Canadian:

Resulting in:

I have left Colombia in making 6 so I can punish myself when I look at it ;(  

If there were a note of caution it would be Wednesday at Chelmsford City and Kempton Park would have returned:

That said, my small stakes‘Canadian’ has been placed! Well 3 in fact, just in case this is a Wolverhampton thing! :/

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 29th January 2015

29th January 2015 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
5:35 32Red Apprentice Handicap (Tapeta) Cl5 2m119y
102.1%	*	Cathedral
101.0%		Ballyfarsoon
100.8%		Medieval Bishop
100.7%		Swampfire
100.1%		Direct Approach
100.0%		Bathwick Street		98.3%	(1)
99.8%		Shadows Ofthenight
98.8%		King Olav	71
98.5%		Akula
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Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 29th January 2015

29th January 2015 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
2:00 Unibet Offer Daily Jockey/Trainer Specials Handicap Cl6 5f
99.3%	*	College Doll	54	99.1%	(6)
98.9%		Argent Touch	56	98.5%	(5)
98.8%		Dont Tell Nan	47	97.1%	(2)
98.8%		Camanche Grey		99.4%	(1)
98.7%		Speightowns Kid		99.2%	(2)
98.4%		Hickster
98.3%		Pabusar		98.6%	(2)
97.3%		Very First Blade	47	97.7%	(3)
97.2%		Insolenceofoffice		99.1%	(2)
96.6%		Electric Qatar	69	99.0%	(5)
96.2%		Incomparable	46	99.1%	(9)
95.7%		Under Approval	55	97.5%	(4)
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Could this be the ‘Holy Grail’ for Horse Racing? (Part 2)

I can’t remember having so much mail in one day after posting Could this be the ‘Holy Grail’ for Horse Racing? and publishing the figures to subscribers for the first time. As much I have tried to respond to each email individually, I fear that if I continue in that attempt the response would be less than timely so apologies in advance to those who will be getting a link to this post as a response.

Most important first! Can I re-emphasise that this is in its infancy and we don’t at this stage have the depth of history that is ideal. As you can appreciate having data on how a horse has performed over (or round-about) the distance it is competing over today is essential. There is no coincidence that in the ‘Canadian’ example I sited, with the exception of one horse, ALL had recorded a fast finish over the distance they were competing over on the day.

Although at present we are faced with (in most cases)  LTO performances, this is not by design, and is more to do with the lack of maturity of my sectional times data. Although I am happy enough at present to get involved with horses that have performed exceptionally LTO over the distance. Being able to rule out horses on the same criteria is key.

You can also glean from the example I provided, the weakness in the opposition, with selection made being emphatic. 

Waterloo Dock (104.4) with its nearest rival Lazy Sioux (101.2) competing over a furlong further which was always likely to deplete its finishing kick. 

Bush Beauty (102.0) with its nearest rival Mops Angel (100.4) and as with Lazy Sioux competing over a furlong further. 

Classic Seniority (104.6) and although there were plenty of unknown quantities regarding sectional time data, Loti (98.2) was its nearest rival again stepping up in trip (is there a theme here). 

Finally Apparatchika (102.6) although not over the day’s trip, with its nearest rival Celestial Bay (98.0) the gap was such that it demanded attention in a race where none of its rivals faced this trip LTO.

There were NO races that I was willing to play yesterday using sectional time data that put a single horse emphatically ahead (as enticing as Trojan Rocket and Pretending looked), and I fear the same is true today at Wolverhampton with only the 7:10 as a real contender, albeit very tentative and the price is generous enough for Win, Place and 4 TBP if evens can be got.

The statement in the original post ‘Yesterday’s card at Wolverhampton was exceptional in the number of opportunities’ shouldn't fall on deaf ears. It’s very much a case of choosing your battles carefully and being patient. Tomorrow could be the day ;)

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 28th January 2015

28th January 2015 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
4:45 32Red.com Handicap Cl7 7f
99.9%	*	Russian Ice	68	100.0%	(19)
99.6%		Actonetaketwo	49	98.2%	(1)
98.9%		Twilight Angel
98.8%		Windy Miller
98.6%		Katmai River	59	99.2%	(12)
98.5%		Fire King	50	98.8%	(2)
98.2%		Welsh Inlet	56	98.9%	(10)
98.2%		Just Rubie	50	97.1%	(3)
97.9%		Bison Grass
97.0%		Mumarasaat		97.0%	(1)
96.9%		Stan Nineteen	69	96.8%	(1)
96.8%		Clock On Tom	52
96.3%		Elite Freedom		97.1%	(1)
94.4%		Stun Gun		94.4%	(1)
B.O.G. BOOKMAKER LINKS:

Chelmsford City All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 28th January 2015

28th January 2015 Chelmsford City
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
1:40 toteplacepot Maiden Stakes Cl5 5f
99.6%	*	Twin Turbo
99.3%		Takahiro
99.1%		Olympic Charm
97.7%		El Che	67
96.8%		Tavener
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