Unex to follow on the All Weather

On what was a relatively poor card at Wolverhampton last night, it was a pity to see horses that were of most interest being withdrawn. In particular, the withdraw of Anfield which appeared to leave the 8.20 at the mercy of Fine Art Fair who subsequently struggled to victory by only a neck. 

After more than halving in price, one of yesterdays two selections was withdrawn mid morning, no doubt due to its exertions' from the previous day on turf. This left subscribers waiting for the final race of the day where our selection had also been backed down from 8's to 9-2.

The TATTING was well clear of the rest of the field bar one at the line but was no match for the highly tried winner UNEX MICHELANGELO who has now dropped from marks in the 90's to a career low of 59. The manner of victory would also suggest that there was plenty more in the tank and would predict more victories are imminent over similar trips until working its way back up to marks in the low 80's.

I am sure that the TATTING will prove a worthy adversary in this company in future but unfortunately came up against a horse that should be racing off a much higher mark. Depending on the leniency of the Handicapper I would have a preference in seeing it back over 1 mile.      

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 19th August 2013

19th August 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 5:50 Like Us On Facebook Wolverhampton Racecourse Novice Stakes Cl5 5f20y
97.0%	*	Rebel Code
94.9%		Dynamo Walt
		Strategical				❶
		Royal Bushida				❶
		Sing Out Sister

Betfred BOG available only if you lose!

Have you ever gone to a Supermarket and having taken advantage of their special offer, been told at the checkout 'I'm sorry this offer isn't available to you'?

Have you ever gone to a store holding a sale only to be told that 'I'm sorry this offer isn't available to you'?

Both scenarios are extremely unlikely but it begs the question how can the Bookmaking industry implement such a policy.

Here is an email received from Betfred yesterday afternoon:

Hi Mark,

Following a review of your account we are no longer able to offer you the concession of "best odds guaranteed" on any business conducted on your account, from Monday 19th August 2013. 

We assure you that this decision has been taken after careful consideration and does not affect your ability to bet in any other way across our Sportsbook and other products.

If you have any further queries please feel free to contact us by one of the following methods. 

Kind regards, 

I have no doubt that this is due to my success in taking advantage of this concession and without it, the use of my Betfred account would border on extremely infrequent to never. I am also not so naive as to not pre-empted this eventuality with all my BOG Bookmaker accounts.

As a matter of principal I will take this further but I am prepared to be shocked when discussing this with 'Trading Standards' today on how Betfred can discriminate in this way while still advertising themselves as a 'Best Offer Guarantee' bookmaker!

Game Louis Steward my ZERO Hero

It was a rather an unusual scenario yesterday with both subscribers selections being 3 pointers on the Lingfield Park evening card. 2 x 3 point selections that were bordering on 4 point selections as both race types were just under the bar selections for the 'On The Money' criteria.

It is very difficult under such circumstances not to analysis, perhaps over analyze the chances of both which is what I fell foul to.

With FATHSTA, I became dubious over the trip, the change of jockey and the draw of a horse that will show its hand late therefore unlikely to be able to gain control of the turf courses 'Golden Highway'.

With ZERO GAME, my concerns centered around the inexperience and record at Lingfield Park of the female jockey in among seasoned veterans. As all 4 runs on the surface had previously been over Wolverhampton's extended mile (2 runs) and extended 9f (2 runs) the trip was also an obvious concern.  

Pre race: if I was to pin my colours to the mast of either, it would have been firmly with FATHSTA.

The first turf raced did little to strengthen my convictions as Pucon grabbed 'The Golden Highway' to score at 14-1, We Have A Dream did the same in FATHSTA's race. King Of Wing drawn 8 slowly worked its way to 'The Golden Highway' in the fourth. This may suggest that the performance of Hiking who took the third, racing one off the rail may well go underrated.

All of my fears with ZERO GAME failed to materialise as we witnessed a pillar to post masterful ride by Louis Steward, making good use of the stamina of our selection in what became a point and shoot victory.

There are times when if you look hard enough you can always find a reason to get a horse beaten. KING OF WING 7-1,  ZERO GAME 3-1 and ELUSIVE WATERS 5-2 would suggest that there is good reason simply to trust in the figures :)

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 17th August 2013

17th August 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 5:00 Causeway Steel 10th Anniversary Apprentice Training Series Handicap (Racing Excellence Initiative) Cl5 6f
101.0%		Emkanaat
100.8%	*	Emiratesdotcom
99.8%		Game All
99.8%		Putin
99.8%		Volito
99.1%		Gung Ho Jack
98.9%		Midnight Feast
98.0%		Blue Deer
98.0%		Judd Street
97.4%		Pucon
97.4%		Pharoh Jake
96.4%		Purley Queen

The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips extends service to Dundalk

The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips service will be extended to cover the remaining 17 fixtures at Dundalk from September 2013.

The service will provide the same information currently made available for Kempton Park, Lingfield Park, Southwell and Wolverhampton with last time out speed ratings, average over course and distance using, the identical format.

The intention is for Dundalk to remain a permanent part of The Actuary service from September 2013 but as the frequency of racing at the track may make the form lines a little imprecise we will see what benefits Dundalk brings to the show before making a definitive decision.

The fixtures for 2013 are:

8th, 27th September

4th, 11th, 18th, 25th October

1st, 8th, 13th, 15th, 22nd 27th, 29th November

6th, 11th, 13th, 20th December 

The Actuary All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 14th August 2013

14th August 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 6:15 £200 Free Bets At Betdaq Apprentice Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl4 1m3f
101.5%	*	Midaz
100.9%		Neamour	100.9%	(1)
100.1%		Lyric Piece				❾
100.0%		Strawberry Jam	100.0%	(1)
		Dragon City
		Gertrude Gray				❶
		Halling´s Treasure

Sanlucar de Barrameda - Racing On Sand Since 1845!

Although horse racing on sand is relatively new to the British Horse Racing calendar Spain, by comparison, every year since 1845, in the second and fourth weeks of August, the beaches of Sanlucar play host to the Sanlucar de Barrameda horse races.

The event attracts people from all over the continent and beyond. The event has been staged informally for years by locals who raced the horses they used for transporting fish from local ports and has now become one of the most important fiestas in the region.

In 1981, the Sociedad de Carreras de Caballos de Sanlucar reformed and took back the reigns (excuse the pun) of the annual races. The event is now better organised than ever and the Sanlucar Horse Races are now part of a national series of equine events that include Madrid, San Sebastian and Seville.

The attraction to participate is of no surprise with total prize monies running between €2,000,000 and €3,000,000 with race winnings running from a few hundred to up to €10,000. Also no surprise in seeing the odd British horse taking its chances.

The event is so well supported by spectators it is practically impossible to find accommodation in the region in the run up to the events unless you book well in advance.  Arriving early afternoon is also advisable if you want a good vantage point for the races which start around 18:00.

Methodical Processes v Human Intuition

With a very profitable August to date and one of our two selections winning at Wolverhampton advised at 6-1 yesterday, you would easily be forgiven for thinking all was smiling faces at El Actuary Casa.

Having spent the vast majority of the day out clutching a dead Blackberry; my only form of communication with the outside world, I was blissfully unaware of the day's horse racing results until arriving back home. As always, my first port of call was to check results and watch the re-runs. Watching the 3:45 my heart sank and the day took on a new perspective.

When compiling the figures for the meeting the day before I had been given a dilemma in the 3:45. With only 8 runners (later reduced to 7) I had three horses all qualifying under the 'Speed and Class' criteria and was left pondering on whether to simply put up 3 selections in the race or, to select what I believed to be the strongest of the three.

Considering that my whole Horse Racing ethos is centered around methodical processes which take poor human judgement out of the equation I opted to do completely the reverse!

The Three horses and ratings were: Summer Dream 40.0, Miss Avonbridge 35.3, Al Freej 34.8 with 30.0 being the qualifying rating. Although I was aware that at the opening prices at level stakes a profit could be made by taking all three, further endorsed by my figures suggesting the winner was likely to come from one of them, I felt uncomfortable with how 3 selections in such a small field would be viewed by subscribers.

My intuition: opt for the highest rated. This decision and poor judgement was compounded as I watched all three, almost in a line as they flashed past the post with Al Freej winning at 7-1 and potentially providing a 5 point profit with the selection finishing the poorer of the three.

Never again! If I put up three selections in a 7 horse race, understand the reason. God forbid that all three should fail to land the prize!

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 12th August 2013

12th August 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 2.15 Download Our iPhone App Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 5f20y
96.9%	*	Red House
95.5%		Oakley Dancer				❸
93.2%		Crazy Brenda				❷
		Captain Myles
		Chuckamental				❷
		Amadaffair				❷
		By Rights
		Dont Tell Nan
		Liefie				❶
		Trinity River

Exchanges re-writing the form book

As a vast majority of my 'Horse Racing' time is spent on the laborious task of form analysis, any opportunity to speed up the process is always embraced with open arms. And, when the process delivers in terms of being labour saving and improved integrity it is 'manna from heaven'.

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 10th August 2013

10th August 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 5:15 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl6 7f140y
98.5%	*	Father Fred
98.2%		Ishisoba
97.9%		Otto The First
97.8%		Smart Alice
97.7%		Little Indian
96.9%		Royal Caper
96.8%		Polish Rider
		Azelle
		Sword Of The Lord

The Great Dr Marwan Koukash

As subscribers landed a nice little touch yesterday by taking the very handsome 7-1 available on the most emphatic winner on LingfieldParks card in THE GREAT GABRIAL who was backed down to 7-2, it set my mind wondering when the last time I saw a Dr Marwan Koukash runner not trying.

Have I ever seen a Dr Marwan Koukash horse not trying!

Whether it is a Class 7 egg and spoon race or a Group 1 this guy wants his horses to win races pure and simple. There appears to be none of the efforts to get a desirable OR which plaques 'The Sport Of Kings'. These horses run on their merits and can generally be relied on to run a race.

Ignore the grey with a gold star at your peril :)

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 9th August 2013

9th August 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 2.20 Ladbrokes Novice Stakes Cl5 5f
98.6%	*	Scruffy Tramp	98.7%	(1)		❶
		Green Door				❶
		Blue Mood				❶
		Dynamo Walt

How to get your mount beaten at Southwell

I was somewhat astounded by the lack of tactical nous from jockeys competing on yesterdays Southwell card.  Some of who know every grain of the sand on the course. 

Renowned for its testing surface there is little wisdom in using up all your petrol in the opening salvo's unless of course we were witnessing new ways to get your horse beaten without the danger of a visit to the stewards room.

I can't recall so many horses coming from off the pace to take the prize in one meeting while those prominent, usually a prerequisite for success at the track faded tamely away. I was obviously keen to get the times and compile my returns to understand what I was witnessing. 

Taking the two 2yo races out of the equation as the Trainers modus operandi is different, there was no doubt that the leaders in 4.55, 6.30, 7.05 and 7.40 went off too quickly in the early stages. 

Twice Neil Callan was the guilty party and one count for Raul Da Silva and Luke Morris who no doubt wanted to make sure of burning off the opposition on his 1-4 on shot. Those that followed them into the abyss, I guess are equally calpable.

With the pending switch of Wolverhampton fixtures between 23rd August and 7th September going to Southwell while maintenance work on its all-weather surface is carried out in a bid to ensure the track can cope when temperatures dip in the winter, it might be wise to check the jockeys credentials on the surface before making any definitive selections!

Southwell All Weather Speed Ratings - Thursday 8th August 2013

8th August 2013 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 4:55 Evans Halshaw Peugeot Mansfield Fillies´ Handicap Cl5 7f
99.3%		Marina Ballerina				❺
99.0%	*	Imaginary World				❶
98.6%		Ishiamiracle	97.9%	(8)
97.7%		Una Bella Cosa	97.3%	(2)		❷
97.0%		My New Angel	99.9%	(1)		❷
96.9%		Enchanted Dream	97.7%	(2)		❷
		Kwanto				❶
		Mesmerized
		Emperatriz				❺

Shava-dab-adoo

You will have to forgive me for being a little self indulgent today. Hey but perhaps that's what blogging is all about.

After a tardy start to the month of August and being acutely aware that most subscribers view the profit and loss position at the end of the day rather than on the basis of individual selections, it was somewhat disappointing to go in to Wednesday with only the one selection on the Kempton Park card and not for the first time this month. At the same time, I hold firm to my convictions that if good opportunities don't exist on a card I won't be drawn in to putting round pegs in to square holes. I know several services promise 'X' amount of selections per day but this can only dilute the effectiveness of their services.

It wasn't the advised overnight price of 14-1 of yesterday's sole selection as we have landed several similar touches before, it was more the manner of victory that was the catalyst to the euphoria of the night. I must admit to feeling that one of those de ja vu moments was about to occur after feeling very bullish on the chances of Hardy Blue on Monday and watching the advised 7-1 evaporating to an SP of 7-2 only strengthened those feelings. Hardy Blue appeared to clip heels coming out the stalls, ran no race and was declared lame by the on course veterinarian.

As SHAVANSKY dropped to the back of the field in yesterday's Kempton Park opener, it was soon a good 25 lengths to the poor and I was almost holding my head in my hands. As this was an Apprentice Handicap I started to question the ability of the jockey, in this case Pat Millman and his judgement of pace. Well, his judgement was far better than mine as he steadily came in to contention without so much as a shake of the reigns and gobbled up the opposition winning with consummate ease.

Mischief managed! Don't you just love this sport.     

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 7th August 2013

7th August 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 6:00 Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Apprentice Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl4 1m3f
101.7%	*	Manomine
100.9%		Shavansky				❷
100.1%		King Olav	101.2%	(7)
99.0%		Layline	99.0%	(1)
98.9%		Standpoint
98.8%		English Summer	98.8%	(1)
96.7%		Sir Boss	99.9%	(5)		❶
96.5%		Takeitfromalady	99.5%	(3)

Tommo Tee'd Up For Failure at Kempton Park!

With so much debate yesterday regarding whether horses should be allowed to run after bolting, I would like to play devil's advocate on the matter.

The stance of Timeform Radio, which I was listening to at the time of Tee It Up Tommo's premature exertions at Kempton Park, was unequivocally on the side of the punter. Or was it?

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 6th August 2013

6th August 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 6:00 Conor Maynard Live At Kempton 14.09.13 Classified Stakes Cl6 1m
99.6%	*	Peter´s Friend
99.6%		Bertie Moon	97.0%	(2)
99.5%		Cherry Tiger	98.6%	(2)
99.1%		Perpetual Ambition	99.0%	(1)
97.9%		Barnmore	97.9%	(1)
97.7%		My Gigi				❶
97.4%		Knight Charm				❶
96.7%		Red Eight	99.2%	(1)		❶
96.7%		Confirmed	98.7%	(1)		❶
		Eton Rambler