The Actuary Horse Racing Tips note the market move for Handicap debutante The Bendy Fella.

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips noted that after the decimation of yesterday and today’s racing fixtures, we are left with a fairly uninspiring card at Kempton Park which if nothing else gives rise to hope we will be racing there again tomorrow.

With our highest price selection at 9-1 it is noticeable that that there has been little in the way of major movement in the Kempton Park markets with a nibble here and a nibble there. Even where a major contender has been withdrawn the prices have remained fairly static with the exception of one race.

What has taken my eye is Handicap debutant The Bendy Fella who has shortened from an opening show of 20-1 last night with Bet365 and is generally half the price. Befair looks to be the best option hovering around 13.5.

In a race where most are exposed Class 6 performers, the Bendy Fella is a 5yo with only three runs in Class 5 Maidens back in March 2012 to its name. This would suggest that Mark Usher felt there was something worth persevering with in this horse.

It is also notable that the jockey on all three of those previous runs and Mark Ushers usual poison of choice 5lb claimer Lee Newnes finds himself riding Sylvester Kirks Glennten while George Baker takes the ride on The Bendy Fella.
 

      

Wolverhampton Horse Racing Tips - Thursday 17th January 2013

17th January 2013 Wolverhampton

4:30 coral.co.uk Fillies´ Handicap Cl5 5f216y
101.5% Aubrietia 100.5% (5) 1ST 8-13
101.0% * Miss Bunter 101.0% (1) 3RD 5-2
100.5% Avonrose 100.3% (1) 2ND 11-1
100.3% Mother Jones 99.8% (4)

5:00 Horse Racing Best Bets At bookmakers.co.uk Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m5f194y
100.1% Dubai Story
99.8% * Stand Guard 100.2% (2) 1ST 2-9
99.6% Priestley´s Reward 2ND 5-1
Esteem 3RD 20-1

5:30 coral.co.uk Mobile Casino Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl5 5f216y
99.3% * Sewn Up 99.2% (2) 2ND 15-8
98.6% Iggy 1ST 3-1
98.5% Black Rider 3RD 9-4
97.6% Stoneacre Hull 96.3% (2)
95.8% Ches Jicaro
Secret Advice
Twist And Twirl

6:00 Free Sports Betting At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl6 1m4f50y
99.7% * Misleading Promise
98.9% Great Ormond 1ST 2-1
98.6% Pacquiao
98.0% Rakticate 2ND 17-2
97.9% Rosie Future 3RD 9-2
97.6% Honey Haven
96.8% By A Wiska
95.6% Crafty Wonder
93.4% Upper Echelon

6:30 Online Betting Offers At bookmakers.co.uk Selling Stakes Cl6 1m1f103y
99.3% * Yourinthewill 99.6% (5) 2ND 12-1
99.2% Guava 99.4% (3)
99.1% Syrian 100.4% (1)
98.6% Gangsterbanksters
98.5% West End Lad 99.9% (6) 1ST 4-1
98.5% Time Square
97.4% Chosen Forever 100.3% (14) 3RD 11-2

7:00 Compare Bookies With bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl4 1m1f103y
102.5% Dubawi Island 3RD 9-4
101.4% Change The Subject 99.3% (1)
100.7% Copperwood
100.3% Knowe Head 99.8% (13) 2ND 6-4
100.2% Desert Vision 101.1% (5) 1ST 4-1
96.7% Calaf 96.7% (1)
Boom To Bust
Cawett Cove
Red Inca

7:30 £50 Free Bet At coral.co.uk Handicap Cl7 7f32y
100.5% Dixie Gwalia 97.2% (2)
100.1% Flow Chart
99.5% * Lord Paget 99.0% (6)
99.5% Coastal Passage 99.4% (3)
99.1% Huzzah 99.4% (3)
98.8% Under Par 99.2% (2) 2ND 11-2
98.5% Hold The Star 99.3% (7) 3RD 20-1
98.4% Media Jury 98.1% (1) 1ST 33-1
97.8% Rise To Glory 97.9% (2)
97.1% Very First Blade 97.1% (1)
77.7% Aljosan

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips 75.61% sure to make the frame

After a bright start to January 2013 for The Actuary Horse Racing Tips we see a repeat of January 2012 playing out as we start to back track.

Although only halfway through the month I feel already that I will remember January for those more painful moments. Those moments that would have made a vast difference to where we are currently.

I spent a little time last night reviewing and looking at some statistics on the month to date.

From a total of 80 selections 75.61% have made the frame, 35.37% have won which would lead you to believe we have made a nice big fat profit. As I have previously pointed out in previous posts, a strike is not a good measure of performance, only profit and loss counts.

Here is the catalyst behind our current position. 29.27% of our selections have finished second, so we have 66.25% of our selections filling the first two places.

Second by a length or more is easy to stomach but when the heart is racing in a close run thing and you are continually come out on the wrong side it starts to grind your gears a little. I have even gone to the extreme of backing selections on the Betfair place markets out of sheer frustration.

If I was to create a wall of pain here are the selections that would appear on it:

Aubrettia (orange) - Luke Morris - Wolverhampton

Le Toreador (middle of the three) - Jamie Spencer - Wolverhampton

Neige D'Antan (Hoops and white cap) - Luke Morris - Wolverhampton

Violent Velocity (black) - Jamie Spencer - Wolverhampton

The common denominator maybe Luke Morris and Jamie Spencer but ALL at Wolverhampton where I am sure the current slowness of the course, perhaps intentionally to pander to those Southwell horses unable to race has played its part but it does act as a stark reminder to the margins we have to play with.

      

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips Top Rated wins opener

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips top speed rating M J Woodward (9-2) available at 8-1 during the day held on gamely to repel all to take the 14:20 Wolverhampton.

      

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Massive gamble landed at Lingfield Park

A massive gamble was landed yesterday in Lingfield Parks 2:40 when Marco Botti’s Handicap debutante Sweet Force was backed from 20-1 down to an SP of 9-2. Ten minutes before the off Sweet Force was available at 14-1 and then in Barney Curleyesque style the price collapsed.

With the news that Barney Curley has announced his retirement for the end of this month it would appear that Marco Botti is staking his claim to the BC mantle.

Sweet Force (purple and white) pounces as they sweep for home

Sweet Force had been beaten 60 lengths in its first three maiden races (21l 8f, 21l 8f, 18.5l 9f) before making its handicap debut over Lingfield Parks 7 furlongs yesterday. Racing off a mark of 48 in a 0-60 Sweet Force, so ahead of its rivals ran three wide for the whole journey before scooting away under a hands and heels ride from Andrea Atzeni who was looking over his shoulder with a furlong to go!

Here a the 4 handicap debutantes racing today on the All Weather:

7:15 KEMPTON SILK SCARF Mark Tompkins - Martin Lane 18-1 

1:55 LINGFIELD JUBILINI Brett Johnson – David Probert 16-1

3:55 LINGFIELD CANDYMAN CAN Dominic French Davis – Eddie Ahern 11-1

4:45 KEMPTON GO FAR Alan Bailey – Nicky Mackay 9-2

      

Shock and Surprise for The Actuary Horse Racing Tips

There are several questions that followers of horse racing feel they know the answer to without doing any research to ensure that their assumptions are correct. These conclusions are drawn from experience and common sense. Sometimes you find that these hard held common sense beliefs carry no validity on closer scrutiny!

        

Having seen Rosie’s Lady winning with consummate ease on 1^st January over Wolverhampton’s extended mile at the 17^th time of asking, returning at a price (11-2) that would suggest that this was no surprise, then following up on the 7^th January over 12 furlongs, winning in a even more impressive style than previously, clearing away from the field with little more than a shake of the reins. I was surprising to me that David O’Meara went to the well yet again on the 8^th January, even more surprised by the return to Wolverhampton’s extended mile.

It did leave me asking the question what is the optimum recovery time for a horse running middle distances. A sprinter running on successive days seems plausible but middle distances I am not so sure.

Rosie’s Lady went in to the race 7^th January on the back of running to standard over the extended mile on the 1^st. She then showed marginal improvement over 1.1/2 miles in a weak race with un-rated Seawood, who could be anything and Actuary top rated Landown Littlerock taking the places.   

The race on the following day (8^th January) looked a different proposition with more competitive depth on LTO ratings and C&D. As Rosie’s Lady was smashed in to during the day I had commented to a colleague how attractive the 8-1 price of Kyllachykov was becoming.

Last night I spent the evening looking at days between runs in relation to The Actuary selections and was dumb founded by my findings.

·         There were a total of three horses in the last year that had run the following day that were Actuary selections including Rosie’s Lady, none had won.

·         From four selections that ran within two days there was only one winner.

Here is where it gets interesting!

·         Of the thirteen horses that ran again between 3 and 5 days 9 had won. That is 69%!

BUT here is the total shocker,

·         Of the thirteen horses that ran again between 3 and 5 there was  one winner from five selections over sprint distances (5f-6f) compared to a perfect 100% record from 7 furlongs and up. 5 of them were in the last month!  

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips Tale of Two Meetings

The Actuary Horse Racing tips saw a remarkable contrast with the figures and results from Wolverhampton and Kempton Park yesterday (7^th January 2013)

Wolverhampton played second best in more ways than one after a promising start with Actuary Top Rated Spark of Genius (13-8) and One Way Or Another (7-4) taking the first two races. We were then plagued by a host of placed horses with Arabian Flight (2^nd) Landown Littlerock (3^rd) Liberty Love (2^nd) Climaxfortackle (2^nd) and Rapscallion Deep (2^nd)

Meanwhile, the afternoon was also playing host to a Kempton Park afternoon fixture where we were blessed with a rare phenomenon of four horses running all having exceeded the top rated over C&D.

The meeting started with a blank followed by top rated Compton Rainbow (9-2) winning before we came to the four races of note.









Smilewithiseyes (9-4) winning, Dark Lane (9-4) winning, Moderator running moderate to poor and Tinkerbell Will (14-1) finishing second in a storming finish. This is without a doubt a desirable trait, so do keep your eye out for future runners with a similar make-up.

The meeting culminating in Actuary Top Rated Lastkingofscotland (4-6) winning in what looked an interesting race if the previous days winner Khawatim had lined-up

From a quality of participants perspective today at Wolverhampton is a sexier day but Cosmic Halo is the nearest I can find in meeting the above criteria but Honoured is rated a little to close for comfort.

      

 

Apologies and not a great advert for Posterous

Apologies to readers of the blog for all the duplicate content. I woke this morning to find that all those stories and snip-its that Posterous failed to deliver over the Christmas break were all posted to the blog in an overnight flurry of activity!  Due to Posterous failure I have been posting them manually hence the duplicates. No response yet from their support but hopefully normal business has now been resumed and the Posterous (automated) service has finished its Christmas and New Year break.