Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Tips - Wednesday 17th December 2014

17th December 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
4:05 Watch Racing UK On 3 Devices Selling Stakes Cl6 7f
99.3%	*	Dusty Blue
98.8%		Mecado	72	98.6%	(3)
97.5%		Aqlette
97.3%		Edw Gold

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 16th December 2014

16th December 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
2:20 Follow @BetVictorRacing On Twitter Handicap Cl5 1m2f
101.1%	*	Oratorio´s Joy	74	99.9%	(2)
100.6%		Ze King	66	100.6%	(1)
100.4%		Time Square	55	99.8%	(7)
100.1%		Dream Ruler
100.0%		What A Dandy	62
100.0%		Nelson Quay	65
99.3%		Ana Shababiya	64
99.3%		Young Dottie	65	100.2%	(2)
99.3%		Byrd In Hand	52	100.5%	(1)
98.6%		Bridge That Gap	57	98.8%	(1)
98.4%		The Gay Cavalier	67
97.8%		Olivers Mount	49	96.1%	(1)
94.1%		Notebook

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 16th December 2014

16th December 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
12:25 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl6 7f
101.5%	*	Best Tamayuz	49	101.4%	(1)
101.3%		Burnhope	60	99.8%	(2)
101.0%		Arabian Flight	62	99.7%	(10)
98.8%		Gaelic Wizard	57	99.9%	(1)
98.6%		Milly´s Secret
97.2%		Wotalad	51	98.4%	(2)
97.0%		Clapperboard		97.0%	(1)
		Howz The Family

When the going gets tough, the winner gets going!

Having had a deluge of e-mail’s resulting from my post ‘Taking things to the next level’, some offering advice, which I thank you for and please don’t be offended if I take a different direction. Others asking me to post my ‘sectional times’ on the blog, along with a whole host of other questions. I hope this post will answer most questions (even those I didn't fully understand) and lay out my intentions.

“The obvious criticism is that the statistician's belief is subjective, and may vary from statistician to statistician. Moreover, it affects the results. Frequentists maintain that their results are based solely on the data, and therefore frequentist inference is more objective than Bayesian inference.”

Firstly my intention is not to record a sectional time for each individual horse at each furlong pole. As admirable as I find the work of those that carry out such a task, it would be meaningless to fulfil my objectives. I also believe this level of data in Horse Racing on our shores where horses are intentionally held up behind a front runner and in most cases look to do no more than follow the pace, whatever that pace may be, for the vast majority of the trip to be largely irrelevant (sorry if I offend anyone).

My intention is record the time of the last 2 furlongs and deduct that from the overall winning race time. This will result in two sets of figures: One giving me the earlier pace: One giving the finish speed. For horses beaten, time is added in accordance to the BHA LPS. 

At the present time there would be no mileage in publishing the figures on the blog. Until I arrive at standards for trip and track (which will be when I have enough data for the figures to remain static as each meeting is added) so we are able to correlate data between tracks using past races from 2008 to the present (with the exception of Wolverhampton'S NEW Tapeta surface).

As straight forward as the task may seem on face value, having spent the time outside of recording times for the last 2 furlong of races, reading on ‘Prior Probabilities’ and Pierre-Simon Laplace (Father of the Field of Probability) thought process expended to another consideration!

If we except (as I do) that there is a going allowance to be factored in to times on artificial surfaces, is it possible that the allowance should be applied ONLY to the finishing furlongs of a race given that most horses react negatively or favourably to the conditions only once pressure is applied?

As you can appreciate this will be a very time consuming undertaking so you will understand the infrequency of posts over the coming weeks beyond posting the daily figs. BUT if anyone has thoughts on the question posed above I look forward hearing from you ;)

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Monday 15th December 2014

15th December 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
1:55 Bet In Play At Coral Amateur Riders´ Handicap (Div I) Cl5 1m1f103y
100.8%	*	Pivotman	65	102.1%	(1)
100.6%		Warfare
100.3%		Gabrial The Thug		99.9%	(1)
100.1%		Tilstarr	72
99.3%		Power Up	68
99.2%		Medal Of Valour
99.2%		Breakheart	61
98.4%		Sutton Sid	61
98.3%		Automotive	56

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 13th December 2014

13th December 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
5:45 £20 Risk-Free Bet At Unibet Maiden Stakes Cl5 5f20y
99.9%	*	Soft Love
99.3%		Secret Glance
98.9%		Kodiac Lady
98.6%		Optimystic
98.2%		Lamps Of Heaven
98.2%		Artist Cry
97.8%		Tamarin
95.2%		Lady Antonios
		Mo Henry

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 13th December 2014

13th December 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
12:05 £20 Risk-Free Bet At Unibet Handicap Cl6 5f
99.9%		Prince Of Passion	61	97.9%	(1)
99.6%		Divertimenti	53	98.2%	(6)
99.3%	*	Ladydolly	48	98.2%	(8)
98.8%		Steel City Boy	59	98.2%	(11)
98.7%		Nine Before Ten		97.8%	(4)
98.6%		Imaginary Diva		97.0%	(4)
97.8%		Very First Blade		98.1%	(1)
97.3%		Saved My Bacon		97.3%	(1)
97.3%		Basle		99.0%	(2)
94.9%		Bond Blade	45	97.0%	(5)
		Redalani
		Synonym
		Balinka
		Lucky Surprise

My Little Flower ready to be picked next time out

With * horses True Course (7-4) Persona Grata (8-13) Kimbay (9-2) Twistsandturns (3-1) Captain Joy (9-4) and Sharjah (11-4) all winning, I am questioning how we have come out of yesterday feeling like our pocket has been picked. 2, 1, 2, 3, 3 sounds more like dance steps but unfortunately it was the day’s results!

If there was a performance to take out of the day it would be that of Mon Petit Fleur finishing second to True Course. Keeping things in perspective as this was only a Class 6 2yo Nursery but Mon Petit Fleurs challenge was abruptly halted for 5-6 strides coming inside the final furlong in the 4:00 at Wolverhampton when tightened up on the rail. Once given racing room Conor Beasley was able to gain enough momentum on Mon Petit Fleur to go with winner True Course only to be denied by ½ length.

Definitely one for the tracker alongside the pillar to post victory of Duc de Seville who on its All Weather debut deprived 2 point Selection Clampdown victory.

Putting up the Christmas Tree is likely to be slow progress today punctuated by an early start at Southwell and then Wolverhampton. Lets hope that results keep us seasonal high spirits ;)

    

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 12th December 2014

12th December 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
6:15 Christmas Party Packages At Dundalk Stadium Handicap 5f
101.2%	*	Kimbay	59	99.1%	(2)
100.8%		Majestic Timeline	66	98.3%	(7)
100.6%		Almadaa	78	98.7%	(11)
99.8%	*	National Service		99.8%	(1)
99.4%	*	Prince Jock
99.3%		Your Pal Tal		97.3%	(2)
99.1%		Hi Empress	51	99.1%	(1)
98.2%		Persian Caliph		98.2%	(1)
97.5%		Thirteen Diamonds		96.1%	(2)
90.7%		Bob Win

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 12th December 2014

12th December 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
4:00 £20 Risk-Free Bet At Unibet Nursery Handicap Cl6 5f20y
99.9%	*	True Course	61	99.9%	(1)
99.5%		Lydiate Lady	48	96.8%	(2)
99.4%		Jebediah Shine	64
98.9%		Diminutive		98.9%	(1)
98.8%		Strategise	55	96.8%	(1)
98.5%		Junior Ben	50	97.3%	(2)
98.3%		Robin Hill	67	98.0%	(2)
97.7%		Torridonian		97.1%	(1)
97.4%		Mon Petit Fleur		97.8%	(1)
97.4%		Devilution
80.6%		Toni´s A Star	45	89.8%	(2)
		Bahango

Taking things to the next level!

After a great start to the day yesterday with the shortest price selections of the day winning, unfortunately we were left wanting with the later selections. Of the failures, all had been in promising positions during their races only to flattened out or just fail when closing.

This scenario is very poignant to the work I am currently undertaking in compiling sectionals (or times for the final furlongs) of races. The Betting Lab series highlighted in yesterday’s post led me to Simon Rowlands article on the subject ‘How to use sectional times for profitable betting’ which is well worth a read.

I do have my own thoughts on the topic which don’t necessarily concur in whole with Simon and there are some glaring omissions which aren’t covered, perhaps expecting us to come to our own conclusions. The most important omission being the need to arrive at a set of standards for the final furlongs to allow comparison between courses. As an example: Lingfield Park final 2 furlongs incorporates a bend whereas Kempton Park (outer loop) is entirely straight. In a raw format, these two configurations are incomparable as a horse is unlikely to reach full momentum while turning.

If you find yourself questioning the importance of such a task in taking things to the next level,

consider the three races over 7f at Kempton Park yesterday and draw your own conclusions:

3:50 7f Class 7 3yo+ Handicap: Overall time 86.97: final 2f 24.10: Early Pace 62.87

4:20 7f Class 6 2yo Maiden: Overall time 88.26: final 2f 22.20: Early Pace 66.06

6:50 7f Class 3 3yo+ Handicap Overall time 84.43: final 2f 22.70: Early Pace 65.73  

What I believe this will offer us once completed is the ability to make an accurate assessment pre-race of the expected pace, and to who it is most likely to benefit. 

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 11th December 2014

11th December 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting.
3:50 Book Now For Boxing Day Handicap Cl7 7f
100.1%	*	Lewamy	47
99.8%		Warbond	58	99.2%	(4)
99.1%		Stun Gun
98.9%		Berwin		98.8%	(1)
98.8%		Island Express		96.9%	(1)
98.4%		Khelfan
98.3%		Princess Rose
98.3%		Quantum Dot
98.1%		Sweet Piccolo		93.6%	(2)
97.4%		Barwah
97.2%		True Spirit	55	96.9%	(2)
96.6%		Chez Vrony	47	99.9%	(1)
96.3%		Waterloo Dock	66
96.0%		Fire King

If you take your betting seriously, this is a MUST watch!

A disappointing day yesterday culminating in dropping 3 points. Most disappointing of all being the run of Sparanai. In the run it was hard to differentiate between ‘to free’ and ‘restraint’ and there was a period where I thought it possible that Sparanai would pull Rory Cleary's arms clean off (pictured in 4th). It wasn't until the horse was let down that in the final 2 furlongs that hopes were dashed.  It is a great lesson in life to learn to simply move on and tonight we have more drama at Kempton Park to look forward to.

Last night ended the Racing UK Betting Lab 6 part series and I have to admit I will miss it. As in depth as they have been, still they have only scrapped the surface. I do get the feeling that James Willoughby, a man who I have the utmost respect for, to the point of hanging on every word he speaks, would have liked to have continued each topic well beyond its allotted spot.

If you are not familiar with the series or James Willoughby and you take your betting seriously, it is well worth watching. You don’t need a subscription to watch.

The Betting Lab Week One   Guest – Betting expert Richard Thomas

The Betting Lab Week Two  Betting angles

The Betting Lab Week Three - Richard Hoiles  

The Betting Lab Week Four  - Michael Shinners

The Betting Lab Week Five – Neil Channings

The Betting Lab Week Six (broadcast last night and not yet on the site)

The Betting Lab Bonus – Compiling your own tissue

Each video is around 50 minutes long and needs total concentration ;) enjoy!

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 10th December 2014

10th December 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
6:10 www.dundalkstadium.com Claiming Race 1m
101.1%	*	Antiquus	79	99.7%	(3)
99.9%		Dashwood	81	99.9%	(1)
99.5%		Doc Holliday	72	99.7%	(4)
97.2%		Canon Law
		Bourbon Prince

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 10th December 2014

10th December 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
3:40 Mix Business With Pleasure At Kempton Handicap Cl6 7f
101.4%	*	Rememberance Day
100.1%		Seven Lucky Seven	53
100.1%		Copper Cavalier	49	98.7%	(3)
100.0%		Hipz	71	99.0%	(2)
100.0%		Happydoingnothing		100.0%	(1)
99.8%		Movie Magic		98.2%	(1)
99.7%		Satellite Express
98.8%		Navajo Dream
98.8%		Kings Chapel
98.8%		Spinning Cobblers	55	100.7%	(1)
98.7%		Thundering Cloud

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 10th December 2014

10th December 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:30 Download The Ladbrokes App Selling Stakes Cl6 7f1y
101.3%	*	Exceedexpectations	65	99.7%	(6)
100.8%		Ortac Rock	80	100.0%	(2)
100.4%		Avertor	62	100.3%	(3)
100.0%		Expensive Taste		100.0%	(1)
98.8%		Rosie Prospects		96.0%	(1)
98.0%		Lindart
97.4%		Crowning Star	65	95.9%	(1)
96.4%		Sea Tiger
93.1%		It´s Only Business	57	98.2%	(2)

I feel strongly enough about the horses chance to top up my bet throughout the day

Back in the land of the living after a virus that just wouldn't go away. A bit like the growing lists of seconds we are accumulating in the past few weeks. Fortunately we are getting enough winners in amongst them, not to make the usual giant strides but enough to give the feeling of running on the spot ;)

A busy day and evening lies ahead and as is customary at this time of the year the races are overly competitive with fine margins between the combatants giving us multiple selections in several of the races of interest. Another 25-1 winner of the ilk of Moulin Rouge wouldn't go amiss today for subscribers but perhaps with a larger winning margin this time!

What is worthy of note from the days cards is the difference in market opinion on the two horses I feel most strongly about. There is no doubt that it would be unwise to take on Mymatechris in Lingfield Park’s 1:30 who ticks all my boxes and after opening at 1.8, at the time of penning this post is at best 1.55. With Thecornishcowboy and Refreshtheparts most likely to have chased it home it is disappointing to see that the latter has been declared a non-runner.

Equally, ticking all the same boxes and of great appeal to me is a horse in the final race at Dundalk. While Mymatechris trades at 1.55, this horse is 8.00. Sparanal doesn't have appealing figures before its name: 07704, but LTO was given an exaggerated hold up ride by Kevin Manning. Pulling hard throughout the trip at the rear of the field, Sparanal made late headway weaving through the pack to finish a never nearer 4 length 4th to Moonmeister 5 days ago.

The quick reappearance is no surprise after this début run on the surface. A race in which I don’t feel Kevin Manning over exerted the selection. I am sure that the 8.00 wont be around for long and it would come as no surprise to see it heavily backed during the day. If on the other hand it should drift I feel strongly enough about the horses chance to top up my bet throughout the day perhaps with a place stake saver if the 8 runners remain.