Poor Paddy Power after Wolverhampton's Peculiar Result!

There were a few peculiar results on last night's Wolverhampton card but we came away unscathed with 100% record. Unlike Paddy Power for whom  Friday the 13th came early as the horse I alluded to in yesterdays post 'Is finding 9-1 winners always this easy?' Royal Peculiar took Wolverhampton's finale. 

Even easier to find on the figures than the previous day's 9-1, Paddy Power opened at 16-1 and paid the price as Royal Peculiar tumbled to 4-1.  

Let's look at the compelling evidence:

Royal Peculiar top rated at 101.9 can frank this level of form with a 101.7 rating from 2 C&D runs. Its nearest rival on LTO, Lean On Pete with a rating of 101.5 is clearly not a 12f horse and has been racing over 8f and 9f trips. The LTO figures then fall away dramatically for the rest of the field who's C&D ratings don't suggest that they will do any more than confirm their LTO rating at best.

Further endorsement to Royal Peculiars credentials in this company: Its C&D rating of 101.7 was gained from 2 x Class 4 races and is now in a Class 5: Its OR was 82 & 83 and is now racing off 72: Both races were 0-85 Handicaps and is now in a 0-75 Handicap.

The margin of victory was less than comfortable and where St Ignatius found the reserves to go with Royal Peculiar remains a mystery.

To readers that have questioned why I didn't post when Royal Peculiar was 16-1? Simply because I write my blog posts every morning, but add, it was there for all subscribers to see when the figures went up the evening before. And, why wasn't it offered as a selection to subscribers? Purely because this falls outside of the scope of the four successful methods we use!     

With two horses in two days winning, fitting this profile unfortunately there is nothing even close to being so enticing today!

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Thursday 12th September 2013

12th September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 5:30 32RedPoker.com Apprentice Handicap Cl6 1m1f103y
99.8%		Handsome Stranger
99.7%	*	Heart Beat Song				❶
99.0%		Elizabeth Coffee	99.2%	(2)		❶
98.8%		Barton Bounty	99.9%	(9)		❶
98.5%		Keene				❶
98.1%		Kyle Of Bute	98.9%	(11)
98.1%		Ella Motiva				❶
97.9%		Justcallmehandsome	99.6%	(4)
96.4%		Tyrur Ted	98.9%	(6)
95.5%		Landaho	95.5%	(1)
		Azelle				❶
		Santayana
		Global Recovery

Is finding 9-1 winners always this easy?

Finding 9-1 winners isn't always this easy but it was staring readers in the face yesterday in Kempton Parks 8:15 just from looking at the figures and a quick form check.   

But first, before we get in to the nuts and bolts of why, I need to clear up a few things. One of the biggest misconception of The Actuary speed figures is the belief that the top rated on LTO (last time out) performance is the horse being championed. If only racing could be that simple!

Although the LTO may provide evidence of recent good, indifferent or bad form, it is important to remember that the LTO figure could have been achieved over any distance on any of the All Weather tracks, with the exception of Southwell which is compiled in isolation.

The ideal scenario would be to have collaborating evidence of whether a horse is likely to attain this figure over C&D (course and distance). This information is not always available and dependent on the make-up of the race with regard to the competition shouldn't be seen as a pre-requisite for a bet. But the information was available in Kempton Parks 8:15.

The ratings were::

Mishrif top rated with 101.6. Its C&D rating was short of this at 100.5. This rating was taken from 6 C&D runs so it is fairly conclusive that it will not run to 101.6. As its nearest rival on LTO was rated 100.4 perhaps it wouldn't need to to win the race.

What casts more doubt on Mishrif's potential in the race is that there are two horses, Silver Lace 101.3 and Bowstar 100.9 having superior C&D ratings. The latter is from 3 races and the former from 1 race.

With no more than a quick glance at Bowstar and Silver Lace's form line you can see that Bowstar has a tougher task than when recording the 100.9. OR 62 not 60, 8f, Class 6, 0-65 Handicap not 0-60 handicap. Silver Lace has the conditions exactly the same as its previous C&D win when the 101.3 figure was achieved i.e. OR 62, 8f, Class 6, 0-65 Handicap, having then raced in 4 consecutive Class 5's. Silver Lace is well down the order on LTO ratings which was recorded over 7f, but over 8f, with these race conditions looked the most likely winner, and given this evidence would YOU ignore it?

n.b. After compiling the returns for the meeting I must admit feeling rather smug when Silver Lace returned a 101.3 and equally smug that Bowstar finishing 3rd at 16-1. But life is seldom perfect and I am scratching my head on how Elusive Waters managed to split them!

Another similar opportunity looks likely this evening and has caught Paddy Power out after offering an opening show of 16-1! But I.m sure you can work this one out for yourselves ;)    

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 11th September 2013

11th September 2013 Kempton Park
5:45 Commission Free 1st Month At Betdaq Classified Claiming Stakes Cl5 6f
101.0%	*	Gabrial´s Gift				❶
100.8%		We Have A Dream	100.4%	(9)		❷
100.3%		Frognal	98.8%	(3)
99.3%		Rondeau	99.3%	(4)		❶
99.2%		Jemimaville	98.6%	(9)		❶
99.2%		Danziger
99.1%		Song Of Parkes				❶
97.9%		Colourbearer	100.0%	(1)		❶
97.4%		Torres Del Paine	99.9%	(13)
		Alkhataaf				❶
		Assembly				❶

Getting lucky with a seasonal trend!

When The Actuary Horse Racing Tips service first started out in 2008 it sole aim was to prove conclusively that by following methodical selection processes a regular profit could be made from horse racing. Having used my speed figures profitably for some time prior to starting the blog I already knew that I would provide this conclusive proof.

What was always disappointing in those early years was the hit and miss of the summer months where we tended to tread water. On closer analysis, what was most notable during the summer months was the prevalence of class ruling over speed. This manifested itself in numerous ways and may be a topic to discuss at greater length in future posts.

After a lengthy study the 'Speed and Class' method was introduced to the portfolio in 2010 and I can still remember now the voices of derision as this method got off to a miserable start and was initially subsidize by the other three methods of selection.

It is somewhat ironic that a service introduced to eradicate the summer blues, today outstrips the profitability of the other three methods and are the flagship of the service. Although I take little notice of strike rate over profitability I am well aware of the comfort that a decent strike rate provides subscribers.

So for the record, the strike rate thus far for 2013 on 'Speed and Class' selections records as follows:

Sept 2013 50%, Aug 2013 46.7%, Jul 2013 36.8%, Jun 2013 36.8%, May 2013 35.7%, Apr 2013 35.7%, Mar 2013 39.6%, Feb 2013 35.7%, Jan 2013 30.7%.

It has been some years since we last recorded a drought through the summer months and as a speed handicapper weaving a class factor in to selections was a bitter pill to swallow but a pill that I will happily continue to take.

How to more than double your monthly profit in 1 day!

With a busy two card schedule on Saturday it was  good to get the first one in the bag. And we did it with some style with 3 point selection PRINCE BISHOP advised at 8-1 putting 24 points in to the bank. Most pleasing when it ensured a very profitable day from the get go.

It was disappointing that thoughts of a bumper day didn't come to fruition with only first past the post BLUEGRASS BLUES (6-1) scoring from the remaining 6 selections. Ending the day with a 23 point profit in retrospect was a pleasing result and I would have settled for less prior to the day. Equally, finding ourselves already +28 points up for September on the 7th of the month bodes very well!  

Apologies for those expecting to see a Dundalk card and selection today but the intention was always to start on 27th September giving us some fluidity in the returns with meetings on a weekly basis. I appreciate that as I mentioned the remaining fixture including the 8th (today) in the post may have been misleading. Even more misleading when realizing that the fixture on the 27th has disappeared from the calendar!  

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 7th September 2013

7th September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 6:00 Quicksilverslots On The High Street E B F Maiden Stakes Cl5 5f20y
99.2%	*	Chorlton Manor				❶
99.1%		Exceed Areeda				❷
97.4%		Dynamo Walt	97.4%	(1)
		Clumber Street
		Gulland Rock				❷
		Muir Lodge				❷
		The Boss Of Me				❶
		Vadara
		Back On Baileys				❶
		Clear Focus
		Marlismamma
		Miss Lawlass
		Rock N Rouge				❷

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 7th September 2013

7th September 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 1:45 toteplacepot Conditions Stakes Cl4 7f
		Dandana
		Evening Attire				❶
		Hors De Combat				❾
		Kingsway Lad
		Passover
		Pretend				❶

Good Friday Horeracing one step closer as BHA take applications.

The British Horseracing Authority has agreed to take applications from racecourses to stage meetings on Good Friday in 2014.

The tradition of an Easter break in the racing calendar has lasted for centuries, with Good Friday being one of the only fixture-free days of the year.

"If there are to be fixtures on Good Friday, the executive were clear to the board that the fixtures must remain fully in the control of BHA, and meet a number of minimum criteria to benefit both participants and the sport's customers," said BHA chief executive Paul Bittar.

"We are mindful of the historical sensitivities around this subject, but will seek to establish the net benefit to the sport of racing taking place on Good Friday, and move the debate to one based on the facts that are available. Good Friday is a significant leisure day, so we are keen to fully assess the opportunity for racing."

As much as the sport needs the cash injection I still fail to understand why Good Friday has to stage the finale! Musselburgh have made it clear that they will also be making an application! Why? What are they bringing to the party!    

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 6th September 2013

6th September 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 6:20 Midland Facilities Apprentice Handicap Cl4 1m
102.5%	*	Cruiser	100.0%	(6)		❶
101.2%		Noble Citizen
101.1%		Travelling	100.3%	(2)		❶
101.0%		Ocean Tempest	100.4%	(2)
100.7%		Uppercut	100.9%	(1)
100.4%		Tevez	101.1%	(5)
100.2%		Idol Deputy	100.3%	(1)
100.1%		Mingun Bell	100.3%	(2)
100.0%		Embankment	99.4%	(4)		❷
99.8%		Swiftly Done	99.8%	(1)
99.8%		Weapon Of Choice	100.9%	(2)
99.7%		Savanna Days	100.8%	(2)		❶
96.3%		Midnight Feast	98.9%	(1)		❶
		Border Legend				❶

The 33-1 shocker and yes I have emotions too!

As I frequently preach on the subject of temperament and self-control, I couldn't help retrospectively analysing the mixture of emotions that I went through yesterday on one particular bet on the Kempton Park card. No doubt, similar emotions that bedevil every punter to some degree on a daily basis.

At the time of placing the bet the evening before, there was no emotion, and there rarely is, as I go through the methodical process of placing my bets.

It wasn't until 10 minutes before the off that the doubt and indecision kicked in. Having taken 10-1 on the selection I noted that bookmakers were offering only 5-1. Ahead of it in the market were an 8-11 and 7-2. With the exception of my selection, the rest of the market was friendless with prices upward of 12-1.

Irrespective of all my hard work the evening before the market was now driving me. My first thoughts: I can lay it on the exchanges to cover my stake. The exchanges were showing a different shape with my selection steadily in free fall at 8.0. This strengthened my resolve in looking to get out and I placed a lay at 5.0 (4-1) to recover my stake. The price continued in its free-fall which strengthened my convictions on laying the horse.

Initially, the catalyst behind the lay was the short price offering the option. It is now based upon the strength of the two at the head of the market convincing me my selection can't win!  

In running, the selection was prominent throughout and took up the running in the final furlong. At this point my lay bet was matched and immediately my emotions were telling me I was a fool and should have had the courage of my convictions.

As the selection started to draw away from the two rivals that had battle with it up the straight my heart sunk. While my brain subliminally whizzed through the calculation of what my winnings would have been and how much I had put back in to the market.

But we aren't done yet as a closer comes out of the pack and nails the selection within yards of the line. A 33-1, first time out from Roger Varian's yard lands the prize. My selection is second by a neck at 12-1 with the two market leaders 1.3/4 lengths back in 3rd and 4th.

I am now numb! I have won nothing, I have lost nothing. Perhaps I should take pride in taking the right course of action. The stark reality is, I would have had greater pride in myself for just sticking to my guns on the win bet.  

They say pride comes before a fall! Oh! the conundrum that is horse racing :)

n.b. If you watch the race re-run on Sporting Life it is well worth watching Hughie's on Proximate in the final 1/2 furlong!  

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Thursday 5th September 2013

5th September 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 5:10 Book Now For Jump Sunday 20.10.13 Claiming Stakes Cl6 7f
96.8%	*	Jana
96.6%		Cabaan				❶
94.1%		Secret Ocean				❶
93.3%		Chilly In Rio
92.9%		Brean Splash Susie
91.9%		Crazy Brenda
		Morally Bankrupt				❶
		Plough Boy				❾
		Hickster
		Mr Childrey

Arc hold BHA ransom over Good Friday!

The future plan of Arc to significantly upgrade the winter's all-weather racing programme is likely to be decided today when the BHA considers whether to break with centuries of tradition in allowing racing on Good Friday from next year.

Arc, which owns three of Britain's four all-weather racecourses, plan to inject £2m into the 2013-14 winter All Weather schedule. This will see significant improvement in the quality and value of dozens of meetings from as early as next month but is dependent on approval for racing on Good Friday, when Arc wants to stage a million-pound finale to the winter campaign.

Arc's plan is believed to include ideas employed by the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup meetings to assemble the fields for the championship event next year. Qualifying races for events at the final meeting, due to be staged at Lingfield Park on 18 April 2014, will be held throughout the winter, while there will also be valuable contests during the season with the winner guaranteed a place in one of the championship races.

Good Friday is one of only a handful of days in the calendar on which no racing is currently scheduled and is the traditional date of stable open days in Lambourn and Middleham. Britain's jockeys also hold their annual awards dinner, the Lesters, in London the previous evening.

Betting shops have been open on Good Friday since 2008 and the scale of Arc's proposed investment in the all-weather programme is so significant that the BHA board is unlikely to stand in the way of it. If Good Friday racing is approved, the date would be opened to offers, with Arc's proposal almost certain to be accepted. Musselburgh is also keen to stage racing the same afternoon.

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 4th September 2013

4th September 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 5:30 Book Now For Jump Sunday 20.10.13 Classified Stakes (Div I) Cl6 1m2f
100.3%	*	Princess Spirit				❶
99.3%		Supa Seeker
97.8%		Ryedale Lass
97.6%		Jamaica Grande				❷
96.9%		Mister Fantastic
96.4%		Goldie Horn				❶
94.7%		Culture Trip
93.6%		Nepalese Pearl
		Mr Mallo				❶

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 4th September 2013

4th September 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 2:20 At The Races Maiden Stakes Cl5 6f
98.2%	*	Travis Bickle
		Almargo
		Beatabout The Bush
		Chainsaw
		Drive On
		Illegal Action
		Lambeth Palace
		Maymyo
		Midnight Rambler
		Outback Traveller
		Torchlighter
		Bereka

Richard Hughes: No place in my affections

A great start to September with our sole selection at Lingfield Park, Prospera advised at 6-1 winning the 7:20 with some ease. Watching ATR while listening to the Timeform Radio commentary I was uncertain as to whether I was watching and listening to the same race! I wouldn't want to be backing and laying based on the commentary. Hopefully we can capitalize further today at the other end of the spectrum with 7 selections over the two cards at Lingfield at Kempton Park

On the subject of Timeform Radio: It was rather ironic that on a day Richard Hughes rides a treble of seconds at Goodwood, among the topics of conversation was Hughie's tendency not to ride out a finish, with several emails hitting their inbox siting races to provide conclusive proof.

It isn't until you hear others sharing your own opinion that you realize that you are not in a minority of one.

Richard Hughes, riding high at the top of the 2013 jockeys championship with a 22% strike rate, 16 wins ahead of his nearest rival Ryan Moore, is without doubt a top jockey but I witness repeatedly, rides where once his mount has lost chance of the first prize it is eased down.

You can imagine as a 'speed handicapper' how this distorts ratings but the biggest question of all is why the stewards of the BHA turn a blind eye to it!

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 3rd September 2013

3rd September 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 4:45 Lingfield Park Supports Young Epilepsy Nursery Handicap Cl5 7f
99.8%		Cape Factor
99.7%	*	Pyjama Day
99.3%		Queenie´s Home
99.0%		Senorita Guest
94.9%		M´Lady Ermyn
94.4%		Brockholes Flyer
		Finn Class
		Royal Connection

Unique Laytown: Anything but 'Standard'!

With horseracing's weekly calendar setup to smolder at the start of the week, rising to its pinnacle on the Saturday, punctuated all to occasionally by major meetings, we are blessed today with the once a year spectacle that is Laytown and I hope ATR do it justice.

As a racetrack Laytown doesn't exist and I understand that the only permanent building on the course is the Gents but I think it is safe to say that dampness of the course (picture left) is tidal and not the Ladies! 

On the run up to the meeting the race field is transformed from a green site to a racing enclosure, with parade ring, bookies pitches, judge’s box and temporary grand-stand erected. Marquees spring up to house the bar, restaurants, weigh rooms ambulance room and secretary’s office.

People travel from far and wide, including many annual overseas visitors, to see this unique event on the beach, and although the word 'unique' is bandied around a lot by promoters of events that have spurious claims to such worthiness, this spectacle is worthy of the moniker. Crowds as large as 11,000 turn up to see it every year. The last time that so many people were on a beach in Ireland was when the native Irish were trying to drive back the hordes of invading Vikings in the middle ages. 

The enclosures at Laytown consist of a three acre field elevated above the beach and the grandstand is hewn from steps cut into the sand dunes. The course itself is a section of the 3 mile long golden sand, which is closed on the morning of the races, which take place when the tide goes out.

I am sure that if you are going to get involved today you will want to know how the course is riding and I am pleased to tell you the official going is 'Standard' :)

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips three times better than The Jury!

Being an avid listener to Timeform Radio for their insight and detailed analysis, I was surprised when listening over the past couple of weeks by their advertisement for their in-house tipping services 'The Jury'.

In the advert they advise on the profit made by following their selections over the past 5 years, this currently stands at 445.62 points.  As The Actuary Horse Racing Tips made just short of 400 points in 2012 alone I couldn't help but feel that their results are a little disappointing.

When you consider the wealth of expertise at their disposal, most of who I have the highest regard for. Plus, the resources to capture the best bets across the whole spectrum of codes not just The All Weather while charging £99 per month I find shocking.

The starkest comparison is that during the summer months, which are not renowned for rich pickings on the All Weather we have managed 135.62 points (May 49.8 pts, June 25.76 pts, July 21.33 pts, August 38.73 pts) while The Jury has accrued only 44.87 points in the same period for more than three times the price.

I don't want to knock an organisation with such a rich tradition and respected name and I obviously have a vested interest in The Actuary HorseRacing Tips but to think I am so far ahead of their game has put a bounce in my step :)

You choose!

Established in 1948

Established in 2008