Southwell upside down after yesterdays winning treble ;)

As it may appear that perhaps I am not carrying out the due diligence on the later races after once again yesterday starting the day well with a treble of winners before the remainder of selections fell in to a black hole yesterday, I have taken a look at the Southwell card in reverse J

I am not a great lover of stakes races and the 3:00 is a real pig of a race. Borough Boy, Chelsea Grey, Misty Eyes and Partner’s Gold make their debut on the surface and there is nothing in their breeding to raise any alerts. Pearl Noir and Bond Blade have put up the best performances on the surface with the formers performance being over C&D. I sure there will be a few chuckles when I say I am siding with 27 race maiden ISLAND EXPRESS ridden and train by the infamous Ann Stokell. Not based upon its last C&D run but its pen-ultimate C&D run where it clocked a reasonable time when 4^th to Bispham Green. I am hopeful that the price will continue to drift prior to the off giving the opportunity of a nice EW price.

The 2.30 offers very little with STUN GUN having the best ‘Sire’ stats from the débutantes and Ishisoba with the best form on the surface, on the clock, but that was recorded over 6f.

On the Cusp and Aureate have put up good performances this term on the surface but not over this trip and Sir Dylan and Botanist make their surface débuts in the 1:55. The horse of most interest to me is MISS ELLA JADE currently trading at 12-1 who put in a reasonable performance over 12f when last seen here and also put in her best performance over C&D back in August.

I am surprised by the quick reappearance of Sleet in the 1:25 given the poor performance 2 days ago. Anfield sets a pretty low standard of those with previous here. A standard so low that you have to think that one of the débutantes will be more capable and my pin has landed on DIAMONDSINTHESKY who has marginally the more favourable breeding stats.

My personal opinion is that this is not a surface for 2yo and the 12:50 Nursery could go to any one of these. Three Heart’s would be of more interest had there been a distance switch on its Handicap début and market support may be the best guide to its chances. Although there is no reason to doubt Big Kenny’s credential over this new trip but VOLODINA is more appealing to me from a distance and value perspective at 16-1. It would come as no surprise if another big price, Cascadia made the frame.

Mr Burbidge makes its Southwell début and although there is not much on breeding to suggest this to be a favourable transition, it’s running style tells us the opposite. Scribe is always a gutsy performer on this surface and should be expect to be in the placing. I have been waiting for MEDITERRANNEAN SEA to be stepped up on this surface and although the one attempt in a Class 4 at Goodwood ended in failure, on this surface in a Class 5 the selection offers good place value in this field of 6.

Have great day

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